FightChoice Intelligence Report

Anthony Wint
vs
Lucas Armand

Anthony Wint vs Lucas Armand

https://fightchoice.app/events/anthony-wint-vs-lucas-armand-prediction-2026-10-03

Heavyweight

UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · Oct 3, 2026

In This Report

Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 20, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Anthony Wint Lucas Armand
Deep Learning Model α 30% weight 23.1% 76.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 29% weight 80.6% 19.4%
Statistical Model β 24% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 17% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 52.4% 47.6%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Anthony Wint's win streak and superior sig strike accuracy are key drivers for the prediction. The ENSEMBLE favors Anthony Wint (52%), despite Lucas Armand being favored by one model, due to calibration and weighting of individual model predictions.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Anthony Wint, citing his advantage in sig strikes absorbed and Lucas Armand's reach.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Anthony Wint, highlighting his superior distance strike share and Lucas Armand's orthodox stance.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Anthony Wint
52.4%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

39% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Anthony Wint Lucas Armand
Career Record 9-0 6-1
Weight 238 lbs. 264 lbs.
Age 31 30

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Anthony Wint Lucas Armand UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 8.5 1 13.2
Strike accuracy 63% 20% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.5 0 0.4
Takedown accuracy 25% 0% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.5 0 0.2
Control time 83.5s 0s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.50 0 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 1 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 100.0% 81.3% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 80.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 12 -1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 12 16 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 64.7% 100.0% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 23.5% 0.0% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 11.8% 0.0% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 1 12 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0 0.4
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No No —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 91.7% 92.3% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 66.7% 84.6% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 25.0% 7.7% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 33.3% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 88.2% 100.0% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 11.8% 0.0% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 2:26 0:23 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,531.3 1,484.7 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.089 0.070 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak —
Market IntelClick here to expandHow the betting market prices this fight compared to our model's number.

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Anthony Wint 52.4% 1.18 84.7% -38.1%
Lucas Armand 47.6% 5.10 19.6% +142.5%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Anthony Wint Lucas Armand
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -769 1.13 +350 4.50
DraftKings -556 1.18 +410 5.10
FanDuel -588 1.17 +430 5.30
BetMGM -588 1.17 +425 5.25
Bovada -526 1.19 +395 4.95
BetOnline -556 1.18 +415 5.15

Odds captured Oct 3, 2026, 6:02 PM

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