FightChoice Intelligence Report

Davey Grant
vs
Elijah Smith

Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith

https://fightchoice.app/events/davey-grant-vs-elijah-smith-prediction-2026-11-07

Bantamweight

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Nov 7, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

In the upcoming Bantamweight clash at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady, veteran Davey Grant squares off against the rising star Elijah Smith. At 40 years old, Grant brings a wealth of experience with a UFC record of 9-7, but he faces a formidable challenge in the undefeated Smith, who's 3-0 and riding a five-fight win streak. This matchup has echoes of when Derrick Lewis faced Chris Daukaus in December 2021, where experience clashed with youthful vigor, ultimately favoring the seasoned Lewis.

Statistically, Grant holds an edge in striking volume, landing an impressive 25.3 significant strikes per round compared to Smith's 15.5. However, Smith shines in accuracy with a striking percentage of 54.7% and a staggering takedown accuracy of 75%. Furthermore, while Grant has been stopped in 57.1% of his fights, Smith has yet to face defeat. As both fighters step into the Octagon, the dynamics of their contrasting styles will undoubtedly create an electric atmosphere, leaving fans eager to see if experience can outlast youth once again.

#DaveyGrant #ElijahSmith #UFCFightNight #Bantamweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 17, 2026, 00:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Davey Grant Elijah Smith
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 46.7% 53.3%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 51.0% 49.0%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 13.6% 86.4%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 17.5% 82.5%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 25.2% 74.8%
Ensemble 22.4% 77.6%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Elijah Smith's youth and superior striking metrics, particularly sig strikes absorbed and accuracy, are the strongest drivers for the ensemble's prediction. Model ζ's perfect score also heavily influences the outcome. The ensemble favors Elijah Smith, despite some models like λ giving Davey Grant credit for defensive grappling metrics.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Elijah Smith, citing his advantages in age, being past prime, win rate, sig strikes absorbed, and sig strike accuracy.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Elijah Smith, pointing to his superior age, ground strike share, and overall ground strike share, even though Davey Grant has an edge in distance strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Elijah Smith
77.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

52% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Davey Grant Elijah Smith
UFC Record 9-7 3-0
Height 5' 8" 5' 9"
Weight 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach 69" 71"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 40 24

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

8 historical bouts

Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Davey Grant Elijah Smith
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 18, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m36s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Chris Daukaus
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
52.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 12, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Women's Flyweight
Lauren Murphy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
26.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
22.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
21s
Eduarda Moura Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
27.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
60.7s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 20, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
Bantamweight
Davey Grant
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.7
Strike accuracy
35.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.3s
Adrian Yanez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33.3
Strike accuracy
39.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 28, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Light Heavyweight
Ion Cutelaba Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40
Strike accuracy
87%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28s
Gadzhimurad Antigulov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
37.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
200s
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 4, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis
Women's Strawweight
Angela Hill Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.3
Strike accuracy
63.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
55.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
161s
Denise Gomes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
46.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 17, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Welterweight
Gilbert Burns
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
27.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30s
Michael Morales Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33
Strike accuracy
58.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 14, 2011
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
Middleweight
Jared Hamman Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.5
Strike accuracy
46.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
109.5s
CB Dollaway
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.5
Strike accuracy
47.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
87s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 22, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady
Light Heavyweight
Jan Blachowicz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Carlos Ulberg Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
47.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.7s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 25, 2021
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
Heavyweight
Shamil Abdurakhimov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.5
Strike accuracy
36.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Chris Daukaus Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m23s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
40.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 15, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz
Bantamweight
John Dodson Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m16s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
54.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
39.3s
Nathaniel Wood
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
46.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.7s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 6, 2020
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
Featherweight
Alex Caceres Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34.3
Strike accuracy
62.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
50.3s
Chase Hooper
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
28.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
58.7s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 15, 2025
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
Women's Strawweight
Angela Hill
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
46.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.7s
Fatima Kline Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
38.3
Strike accuracy
51.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
105.3s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 14, 2012
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson
Middleweight
Hector Lombard Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
52.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45s
Rousimar Palhares
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
53% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 25, 2025
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Women's Strawweight
Mizuki Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
60.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
149.3s
Jaqueline Amorim
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
41.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.3s
53% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 29, 2024
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
Women's Strawweight
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
40.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.3s
Gillian Robertson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.7
Strike accuracy
73.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
251.3s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Davey Grant Elijah Smith UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 25.3 15.5 13.2
Strike accuracy 45.5% 54.7% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.3 0.5 0.4
Takedown accuracy 38.7% 75% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.3 0.2
Control time 32.7s 82.8s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.10 0.17 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.10 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 56.3% 83.3% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 100.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 5 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 16 6 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 40.4% 83.9% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 32.6% 5.4% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 27.0% 10.8% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 18.31 7.17 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.38 1.17 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.96 0.34 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.16 0.85 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.4 1 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 44.4% 60.0% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 40.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 11.1% 20.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 57.1% 100.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 89.5% 46.2% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.9% 6.5% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 4.6% 47.3% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 11:54 8:25 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,540.4 1,545.7 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.224 0.082 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak —

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