FightChoice Intelligence Report

Marcio Barbosa
vs
Ryan Kuse

Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse

https://fightchoice.app/events/marcio-barbosa-vs-ryan-kuse-prediction-2026-08-22

Featherweight

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Aug 22, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Marcio Barbosa Ryan Kuse
Deep Learning Model α 25% weight 53.7% 46.3%
Deep Learning Model ξ 27% weight 61.4% 38.6%
Statistical Model β 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 23% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 55.9% 44.1%
Predicted Winner
Marcio Barbosa
55.9%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 1m15s (6m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

33% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 100 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 100 similar fights By submission *Based on 100 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Marcio Barbosa 30.8% 12.9% 12.3% 55.9%
Ryan Kuse 24.2% 10.1% 9.7% 44.1%
100 historical bouts 55.0% 23.0% 22.0% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

100 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 100 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

55% Reached the judges
45% Ended early
23% KO/TKO 22% Submission 6:04 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Marcio Barbosa Ryan Kuse
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 14, 2012
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson
Lightweight
George Sotiropoulos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
30.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29.7s
Ross Pearson Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.7s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 22, 2007
UFC 76: Knockout
Welterweight
Jon Fitch Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
193s
Diego Sanchez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.7
Strike accuracy
61.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
22.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
71.7s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 18, 2025
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Bantamweight
Rinya Nakamura
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
42.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
33.7s
Muin Gafurov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
41.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
52.3s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 10, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland
Lightweight
Joe Solecki Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
45.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
187.7s
Jim Miller
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.7
Strike accuracy
32.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
41s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 13, 2014
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
Lightweight
Drew Dober Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m52s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
40s
Jamie Varner
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 19, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Middleweight
Khamzat Chimaev Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Gerald Meerschaert
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 6, 2019
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
Middleweight
Edmen Shahbazyan Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m12s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
54.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
33s
Jack Marshman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
50.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Roy Nelson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.3
Strike accuracy
21.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
70%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
193s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 8, 2018
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
Middleweight
Darren Stewart Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
36.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30s
Charles Byrd
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
60.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
51s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 11, 2020
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
Women's Bantamweight
Karol Rosa Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40
Strike accuracy
52.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
116.7s
Vanessa Melo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 27, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Women's Strawweight
Alexia Thainara Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
41.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
45.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
200.7s
Loma Lookboonmee
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
49.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.7s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 21, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
Bantamweight
Brett Johns
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
30.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
130s
Aljamain Sterling Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.7
Strike accuracy
58.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 7, 2018
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
Lightweight
Joe Lauzon
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
35%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Chris Gruetzemacher Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
64
Strike accuracy
65.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
49s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 27, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till
Middleweight
Eric Spicely
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.5
Strike accuracy
20%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
31.5s
Darren Stewart Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
37.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.5s
62% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 9, 2022
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie
Welterweight
Khamzat Chimaev Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36
Strike accuracy
48.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47.7s
Gilbert Burns
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
39.7
Strike accuracy
59.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Marcio Barbosa Ryan Kuse
UFC Record 1-0 —
Height 5' 6" —
Weight 145 lbs. —
Reach 70" —
Stance Orthodox —
Age 28 —

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Marcio Barbosa Ryan Kuse
Per Round Average
Strikes 4 —
Strike accuracy 50% —
Takedowns 0 —
Takedown accuracy 0% —
Sub attempts 0 —
Control time 0s —
Knockdowns 1 —
Knockdowns absorbed 0 —
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 66.7% 50.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 50.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 3 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 6 2
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 100.0% 0.0%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 5 1.374
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0.747
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 0.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 0.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 100.0% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 100.0% 0.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 1:20 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,514.6 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.028 0.021
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Early

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Marcio Barbosa 55.9% 1.12 89.3% -37.4%
Ryan Kuse 44.1% 6.75 14.8% +197.4%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Marcio Barbosa Ryan Kuse
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -1667 1.06 +540 6.40
DraftKings -833 1.12 +575 6.75
FanDuel -909 1.11 +610 7.10
Bovada -909 1.11 +600 7.00
BetOnline -833 1.12 +550 6.50

Odds captured Aug 22, 2026, 6:02 PM

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