FightChoice Intelligence Report

Milos Janicic
vs
Noah Gugnon

Milos Janicic vs Noah Gugnon

https://fightchoice.app/events/milos-janicic-vs-noah-gugnon-prediction-2026-08-01

Lightweight

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Aug 1, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Jul 29, 2026, 06:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Milos Janicic Noah Gugnon
Deep Learning Model α 25% weight 53.1% 46.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 27% weight 74.2% 25.8%
Statistical Model β 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 23% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 73.3% 26.7%
Predicted Winner
Milos Janicic
73.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 2m33s (7m33s total)
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Tale of the Tape

Stat Milos Janicic Noah Gugnon
Weight 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Age 29 25

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Milos Janicic 73.3% 1.91 52.4% +40.0%
Noah Gugnon 26.7% 1.91 52.4% -49.0%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 28% of bankroll on Milos Janicic at 1.83 (DraftKings) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Milos Janicic Noah Gugnon
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -115 1.87 -135 1.74
DraftKings -110 1.91 -110 1.91
FanDuel -104 1.96 -112 1.89
Bovada -108 1.93 -112 1.89
BetOnline -115 1.87 -105 1.95

Odds captured Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 PM

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