FightChoice Intelligence Report

Alik Lorenz
vs
Mahamed Aly

Alik Lorenz vs Mahamed Aly

https://fightchoice.app/events/alik-lorenz-vs-mahamed-aly-prediction-2026-08-18

Light Heavyweight

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 2 · Aug 18, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Outdated predictions due to model or data updates

Model Breakdown
Alik Lorenz Mahamed Aly
Deep Learning Model α 25% weight 43.5% 56.5%
Deep Learning Model ξ 27% weight 56.5% 43.5%
Statistical Model β 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 23% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 51.0% 49.0%
Predicted Winner
Alik Lorenz
51.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 3m45s (13m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

49% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Alik Lorenz 27.0% 15.0% 8.2% 50.2%
Mahamed Aly 26.8% 14.9% 8.2% 49.8%
281 historical bouts 53.7% 29.9% 16.4% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

54% Reached the judges
46% Ended early
30% KO/TKO 16% Submission 6:21 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Alik Lorenz Mahamed Aly
85% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 16, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy
Welterweight
Sam Stout
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
KJ Noons Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
63.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
84% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 16, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Bantamweight
Jack Shore
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.5
Strike accuracy
43.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.5s
Ricky Simon Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.5
Strike accuracy
65.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
123s
84% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 28, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze
Middleweight
Gilbert Urbina
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.5
Strike accuracy
59.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
80s
Bryan Battle Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
52.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
41s
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 10, 2016
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
Lightweight
Jason Saggo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
26.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Rustam Khabilov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
41.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
116.3s
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 22, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Light Heavyweight
Alonzo Menifield
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
28.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Volkan Oezdemir Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
37.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 16, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar
Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
61.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Li Jingliang Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
42%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 17, 2024
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Light Heavyweight
Brendson Ribeiro
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
45.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Zhang Mingyang Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
60.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 15, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz
Flyweight
Mark De La Rosa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.5
Strike accuracy
36.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Raulian Paiva Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
53.5s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 8, 2011
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
Lightweight
Gray Maynard
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.5
Strike accuracy
24.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
Frankie Edgar Winner
Finish 4th Rnd, 3m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
34.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.8s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 19, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba
Bantamweight
Vince Morales
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
29.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
Miles Johns Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
36.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
8.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42.7s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 7, 2024
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
Heavyweight
Alexander Volkov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
54.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
90.7s
Ciryl Gane Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
70.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
73.3s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 7, 2021
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
Women's Strawweight
Jessica Penne Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m32s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
63.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
193s
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 6, 2013
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
Middleweight
Tim Boetsch
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
56.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
59.7s
Mark Munoz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
67.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
188.7s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 1, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa
Welterweight
Anthony Rocco Martin Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m19s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
29.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
23.7s
Jake Matthews
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
32%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 1, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan
Featherweight
Nate Maness Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
42%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29.7s
Johnny Munoz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
62.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
12.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
194s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Alik Lorenz Mahamed Aly
Height 6' 2" 6' 2"
Weight 205 lbs. 205 lbs.
Reach 77" 78"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 29 32

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Alik Lorenz Mahamed Aly
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 0.0% 50.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 0.0% 50.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 1 2
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 1.374 1.374
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.747 0.747
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 100.0% 100.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. — —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1500 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.006 0.014
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Early Early

Betting Edge

Recommended stake 16% of bankroll on Alik Lorenz at 3.80 (BetOnline) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Alik Lorenz Mahamed Aly
US Decimal US Decimal
FanDuel +430 5.30 -667 1.15
BetMGM +300 4.00 -455 1.22
BetOnline +325 4.25 -417 1.24

Odds captured Aug 19, 2026, 12:03 AM

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