FightChoice Intelligence Report

Namo Fazil
vs
Kaik Brito

Namo Fazil vs Kaik Brito

https://fightchoice.app/events/namo-fazil-vs-kaik-brito-prediction-2026-08-18

Welterweight

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 2 · Aug 18, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Outdated predictions due to model or data updates

Model Breakdown
Namo Fazil Kaik Brito
Deep Learning Model α 25% weight 8.0% 92.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 27% weight 72.0% 28.0%
Statistical Model β 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 23% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 43.2% 56.8%
Predicted Winner
Kaik Brito
56.8%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

70% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Namo Fazil 21.5% 15.2% 6.5% 43.2%
Kaik Brito 28.3% 20.0% 8.5% 56.8%
281 historical bouts 49.8% 35.2% 14.9% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

50% Reached the judges
50% Ended early
35% KO/TKO 15% Submission 6:30 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Namo Fazil Kaik Brito
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 15, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta
Bantamweight
Rob Font Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37
Strike accuracy
44.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
96.3s
Sergio Pettis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.7
Strike accuracy
38.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 4, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac
Heavyweight
Marcin Tybura Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
38.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
98.3s
Blagoy Ivanov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
30.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 4, 2023
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
Lightweight
Mateusz Gamrot Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
69%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
137.3s
Jalin Turner
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
41.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 14, 2015
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
Flyweight
Sergio Pettis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.5
Strike accuracy
39%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
49s
Ryan Benoit Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m34s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
31.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 18, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2
Middleweight
Jack Hermansson Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m18s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Kelvin Gastelum
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
33s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 23, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo
Lightweight
Maheshate
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
33.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Nikolas Motta Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
47%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 16, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura
Lightweight
Natan Levy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
88.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17s
Mike Davis Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.5
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
155.5s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 20, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway
Light Heavyweight
Antonio Carlos Junior
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
41.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
12.3s
Patrick Cummins Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
66%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
225.3s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 4, 2023
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
Welterweight
Ian Machado Garry Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
42.3
Strike accuracy
55%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
Song Kenan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.7s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 1, 2015
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
Heavyweight
Antonio Silva Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45.5s
Soa Palelei
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.5
Strike accuracy
54.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
79.5s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 19, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba
Heavyweight
Chase Sherman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
37.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
31.3s
Waldo Cortes Acosta Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
49
Strike accuracy
52.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 19, 2014
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao
Flyweight
Brad Pickett
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
22.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30.7s
Ian McCall Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
47.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
54s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 8, 2006
UFC 61: Bitter Rivals
Heavyweight
Tim Sylvia Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.4
Strike accuracy
36.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
Andrei Arlovski
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.2
Strike accuracy
20.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 3, 2017
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
Welterweight
Luan Chagas Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m48s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
47.5
Strike accuracy
60.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
Jim Wallhead
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
20%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.5s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 12, 2015
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale
Bantamweight
Russell Doane
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
127s
Jerrod Sanders Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
68.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
37.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
134s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Namo Fazil Kaik Brito
Height — 5' 11"
Weight 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach — 72"
Stance — Orthodox
Age 29 29

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

No recorded UFC statistics for Namo Fazil.

Stat Namo Fazil Kaik Brito
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. — 33.3%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. — 33.3%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. — -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. — 3
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. — 0.0%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. — 0.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. — 0.0%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. — 1.374
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. — 0.747
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. — Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. — No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. — No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. — 100.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. — 100.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. — 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. — 50.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. — 0.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. — 0.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. — 0.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. — —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. — 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. — 0.015
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. — Early

Betting Edge

Recommended stake 13% of bankroll on Kaik Brito at 2.38 (FanDuel) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Namo Fazil Kaik Brito
US Decimal US Decimal
FanDuel -179 1.56 +150 2.50
BetMGM -179 1.56 +145 2.45
BetOnline -179 1.56 +156 2.56

Odds captured Aug 19, 2026, 12:03 AM

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