FightChoice Intelligence Report

Dan Hooker
vs
Salahdine Parnasse

Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse

https://fightchoice.app/events/dan-hooker-vs-salahdine-parnasse-prediction-2026-09-05

Lightweight

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Sep 5, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Dan Hooker Salahdine Parnasse
Deep Learning Model α 25% weight 57.3% 42.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 27% weight 77.4% 22.6%
Statistical Model β 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 23% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 63.5% 36.5%
Predicted Winner
Dan Hooker
63.5%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

29% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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How Similar Fights Ended

1 historical bouts

Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Dan Hooker Salahdine Parnasse
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 16, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
catch/open/unknown
Modestas Bukauskas Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45s
Christian Edwards
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
50.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
87.3s
52% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 17, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Lightweight
Gabe Green Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
66s
Matheus Camilo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
48.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
75s
50% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 16, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Bantamweight
Malcolm Wellmaker
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.5
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Juan Diaz Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m08s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
52%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.5
Takedown accuracy
62.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
114s
49% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 21, 2012
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
Heavyweight
Cheick Kongo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
67.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
121s
Shawn Jordan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
36.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
119s
48% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 12, 2015
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
Welterweight
Gunnar Nelson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0.7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
44.7s
Demian Maia Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
81%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
218.7s
47% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 3, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Featherweight
Marcelo Rojo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.5
Strike accuracy
66%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Francis Marshall Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m14s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.5
Strike accuracy
28.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
83.5s
46% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 19, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
Featherweight
Jonathan Pearce Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
40.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
225.7s
Christian Rodriguez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
43.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
21.7s
46% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 18, 2025
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen
Women's Bantamweight
Melissa Croden Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m32s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33
Strike accuracy
56.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
101.7s
Tainara Lisboa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
45.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.3s
46% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 22, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Featherweight
Bogdan Grad
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.5
Strike accuracy
53.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
117.5s
Luke Riley Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
60.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.5s
45% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 21, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.
Heavyweight
Curtis Blaydes Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
58.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
13.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
107s
Rizvan Kuniev
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.7s
45% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 24, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria
Flyweight
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34.3
Strike accuracy
35.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
23.3s
Joshua Van Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40
Strike accuracy
51.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
45% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 19, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne
Bantamweight
Aiemann Zahabi Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
39.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
Reginaldo Vieira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
33.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
15.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
48s
44% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 3, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi
Bantamweight
John Castaneda Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
85.3s
Muin Gafurov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.3
Strike accuracy
38.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
38.3s
44% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 14, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley
Welterweight
Kamaru Usman Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.2
Strike accuracy
41.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.8
Takedown accuracy
30.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
155.4s
Joaquin Buckley
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.8
Strike accuracy
29.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
43% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 27, 2024
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
Women's Strawweight
Shauna Bannon Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.7
Strike accuracy
45.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.3s
Alice Ardelean
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
54.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
118s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Dan Hooker Salahdine Parnasse
UFC Record 14-10 —
Height 6' 0" —
Weight 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 75" —
Stance Switch —
Age 36 28

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Dan Hooker Salahdine Parnasse
Per Round Average
Strikes 21.3 —
Strike accuracy 48.7% —
Takedowns 0.2 —
Takedown accuracy 33.3% —
Sub attempts 0.2 —
Control time 46.5s —
Knockdowns 0.16 —
Knockdowns absorbed 0.04 —
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 58.3% 100.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 100.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 3
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 24 3
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 62.3% 0.0%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 18.3% 0.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 19.5% 0.0%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 21.84 1.374
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.44 0.747
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.47 —
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.52 —
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 5 —
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. Yes No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 64.3% 33.3%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 33.3%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 14.3% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 60.0% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 84.4% 0.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.5% 0.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 7.1% 0.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 10:08 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,570.6 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.210 0.057
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Early

Betting Edge

Recommended stake 26% of bankroll on Dan Hooker at 4.10 (proline) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Dan Hooker Salahdine Parnasse
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +310 4.10 -625 1.16

Odds captured Aug 28, 2026, 6:02 AM

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