FightChoice Intelligence Report

Daniil Donchenko
vs
Punahele Soriano

Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano

https://fightchoice.app/events/daniil-donchenko-vs-punahele-soriano-prediction-2026-09-05

Welterweight

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Sep 5, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 28, 2026, 06:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Daniil Donchenko Punahele Soriano
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 27.6% 72.4%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 60.2% 39.8%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 53.2% 46.8%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 69.2% 30.8%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 63.2% 36.8%
Ensemble 57.1% 42.9%
Predicted Winner
Daniil Donchenko
57.1%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 3m45s (8m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

43% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 126 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 126 similar fights By submission *Based on 126 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Daniil Donchenko 33.1% 16.8% 7.3% 57.1%
Punahele Soriano 24.8% 12.6% 5.4% 42.9%
126 historical bouts 57.9% 29.4% 12.7% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

126 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 126 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

58% Reached the judges
42% Ended early
29% KO/TKO 13% Submission 6:54 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Daniil Donchenko Punahele Soriano
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 9, 2017
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
Flyweight
Henry Cejudo Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
58.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22.5s
Wilson Reis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.5
Strike accuracy
20%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 13, 2019
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
Flyweight
Alexandre Pantoja Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m58s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
69.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14s
Wilson Reis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
16.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 19, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall
Featherweight
Mike Grundy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
31s
Makwan Amirkhani Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m57s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 29, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
Welterweight
Neil Magny Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
70.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
164.7s
Robbie Lawler
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
57.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
31s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2012
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
Lightweight
Khabib Nurmagomedov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
24.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
88.3s
Gleison Tibau
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
32.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 14, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
Bantamweight
Alejandro Perez Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
44%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14s
Matthew Lopez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
61.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
93.5s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 24, 2009
UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun
Lightweight
Josh Neer
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
24.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
Gleison Tibau Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.3
Strike accuracy
18.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3.7
Takedown accuracy
78.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
92.3s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 27, 2014
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
Flyweight
Demetrious Johnson Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m29s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.5
Strike accuracy
62.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
141s
Chris Cariaso
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
22.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.5s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 25, 2014
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
Heavyweight
Nikita Krylov Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
68.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Walt Harris
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
20%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 3, 2018
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
Middleweight
CB Dollaway Winner
Decision 1st Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
68.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Hector Lombard
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
57.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 2, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Flyweight
Steve Erceg Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
45.3
Strike accuracy
53.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.7s
Tim Elliott
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30
Strike accuracy
34.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
18.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.3s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 3, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Lightweight
Marc Diakiese
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
43.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Michael Johnson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.7
Strike accuracy
45.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 17, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises
Featherweight
Billy Quarantillo Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m40s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33.3
Strike accuracy
64.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
173.3s
Gabriel Benitez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
51.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.7s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 16, 2013
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald
Light Heavyweight
Jimi Manuwa Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
143s
Cyrille Diabate
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
64.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 15, 2017
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Flyweight
Demetrious Johnson Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m49s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36
Strike accuracy
58.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
46s
Wilson Reis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.3
Strike accuracy
9.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Daniil Donchenko Punahele Soriano
Career Record 14-2 13-4
Height 5' 11" 5' 11"
Weight 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach 71" 72"
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Age 25 33

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Daniil Donchenko Punahele Soriano
Per Round Average
Strikes 35 20.4
Strike accuracy 62.3% 56%
Takedowns 0.2 0.5
Takedown accuracy 33.3% 48.1%
Sub attempts 0 0.0
Control time 38.3s 81.5s
Knockdowns 0.67 0.25
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.04
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 100.0% 80.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 4 4
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 4 20
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 42.9% 79.2%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 26.2% 18.6%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 31.0% 2.2%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 12.17 15.25
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.17 0.88
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.25 0.43
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.42 0.24
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0 1.25
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 75.0% 81.3%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 75.0% 68.8%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 12.5%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 50.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 79.0% 44.9%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 11.0% 8.6%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 10.0% 46.5%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 8:41 9:41
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,547.1 1,545.8
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.036 0.131
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

Market Odds

Sportsbook Daniil Donchenko Punahele Soriano
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -250 1.40 +155 2.55
FanDuel -213 1.47 +172 2.72
BetOnline -204 1.49 +177 2.77

Odds captured Aug 28, 2026, 6:02 AM

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