FightChoice Intelligence Report

Gary Balletto
vs
Sean Clancy Jr.

Gary Balletto vs Sean Clancy Jr.

https://fightchoice.app/events/gary-balletto-vs-sean-clancy-jr-prediction-2026-08-25

Welterweight

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 3 · Aug 25, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Gary Balletto Sean Clancy Jr.
Deep Learning Model α 25% weight 65.1% 34.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 27% weight 65.5% 34.5%
Statistical Model β 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 23% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 61.7% 38.3%
Predicted Winner
Gary Balletto
61.7%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

61% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Gary Balletto 30.3% 19.5% 11.9% 61.7%
Sean Clancy Jr. 18.8% 12.1% 7.4% 38.3%
281 historical bouts 49.1% 31.7% 19.2% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

49% Reached the judges
51% Ended early
32% KO/TKO 19% Submission 5:18 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Gary Balletto Sean Clancy Jr.
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 11, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Lightweight
Nurullo Aliev Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
39.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
164.3s
Joe Solecki
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
41.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 26, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green
Middleweight
Misha Cirkunov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
68.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
92s
Wellington Turman Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m29s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.5
Strike accuracy
78.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
67.5s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 30, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
Featherweight
Darren Elkins Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
49.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
157.3s
Tristan Connelly
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
56.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19.3s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 17, 2016
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Women's Strawweight
Paige VanZant
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Michelle Waterson-Gomez Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
70.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
108s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 31, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang
Flyweight
Kai Kara-France Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.3
Strike accuracy
47.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.3s
Mark De La Rosa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
30.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 6, 2018
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale
Middleweight
Gerald Meerschaert Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m55s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.5
Strike accuracy
49%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
75s
Oskar Piechota
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.5
Strike accuracy
43.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
100.5s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 4, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy
Lightweight
Al Iaquinta
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
40.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Donald Cerrone Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.6
Strike accuracy
38.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.4s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 12, 2022
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
Lightweight
Brad Riddell
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
56%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14s
Renato Moicano Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m20s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
30.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
34s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 7, 2024
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
Featherweight
Movsar Evloev Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.7
Strike accuracy
30.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
123s
Aljamain Sterling
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
125.3s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 15, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou
Flyweight
John Moraga Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
45.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
35.7s
Dustin Ortiz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
42.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
142.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 10, 2016
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
Welterweight
Yancy Medeiros Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m49s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
29.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Sean Spencer
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
19.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 18, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2
Lightweight
Davi Ramos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
32%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
Arman Tsarukyan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.3
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
62.7s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 21, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
Lightweight
Clay Guida
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
34%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Mark Madsen Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.7
Strike accuracy
51%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 9, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov
Middleweight
Andrew Sanchez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
36.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.7s
Trevor Smith
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.3
Strike accuracy
43.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
14.3s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 31, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
Heavyweight
Maurice Greene
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
45.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Greg Hardy Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m12s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
62.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
76s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Gary Balletto Sean Clancy Jr.
Weight 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Age 31 23

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

No recorded UFC statistics for Sean Clancy Jr..

Stat Gary Balletto Sean Clancy Jr.
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 33.3% —
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 33.3% —
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 —
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 3 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 1.374 —
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.747 —
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% —
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% —
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% —
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 100.0% —
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. — —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1500 —
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.015 —
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Early —

Betting Edge

Recommended stake 27% of bankroll on Gary Balletto at 5.90 (FanDuel) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Gary Balletto Sean Clancy Jr.
US Decimal US Decimal
FanDuel +2300 24.00 -5000 1.02
BetOnline +874 9.74 -1429 1.07

Odds captured Aug 26, 2026, 12:01 AM

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