FightChoice Intelligence Report

Mario Piazzon
vs
Guilherme Uriel

Mario Piazzon vs Guilherme Uriel

https://fightchoice.app/events/mario-piazzon-vs-guilherme-uriel-prediction-2026-08-25

Heavyweight

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 3 · Aug 25, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Outdated predictions due to model or data updates

Model Breakdown
Mario Piazzon Guilherme Uriel
Deep Learning Model α 25% weight 10.5% 89.5%
Deep Learning Model ξ 27% weight 71.1% 28.9%
Statistical Model β 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 23% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 43.8% 56.2%
Predicted Winner
Guilherme Uriel
56.2%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

65% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Mario Piazzon 24.0% 13.9% 5.9% 43.8%
Guilherme Uriel 30.8% 17.8% 7.6% 56.2%
281 historical bouts 54.8% 31.7% 13.5% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

55% Reached the judges
45% Ended early
32% KO/TKO 14% Submission 4:51 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Mario Piazzon Guilherme Uriel
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 11, 2021
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
Flyweight
Kai Kara-France Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
56.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
Cody Garbrandt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
52.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 26, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Bantamweight
Takeya Mizugaki Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
60s
George Roop
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
42%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
117.7s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 3, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Women's Strawweight
Mackenzie Dern Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
35.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
55s
Loopy Godinez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
45.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
33.7s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 15, 2012
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Flyweight
Jared Papazian
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
37.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43.3s
Tim Elliott Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
52.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
142.3s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 29, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo
Featherweight
Aalon Cruz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
16.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
Spike Carlyle Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
69%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 17, 2012
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
Lightweight
Sam Stout
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
17.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
John Makdessi Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
53.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 4, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Lightweight
Lando Vannata
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.5
Strike accuracy
75%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
68s
Darrius Flowers Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m52s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.5s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 11, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Welterweight
Punahele Soriano Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m31s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
76.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
Uros Medic
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 28, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Women's Strawweight
Joanna Jedrzejczyk Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
37.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45s
Tecia Pennington
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
42.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
94.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 6, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
Heavyweight
Mohammed Usman Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m36s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
30%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Zac Pauga
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
64%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 19, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Bantamweight
Andre Ewell Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
41
Strike accuracy
41.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
Irwin Rivera
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
46%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
11.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 26, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder
Women's Strawweight
Amanda Ribas
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
Tabatha Ricci Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
44.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
125.5s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 22, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
Women's Featherweight
Karol Rosa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
48.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
64.3s
Norma Dumont Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
40.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
98s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 16, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Flyweight
Daniel Barez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37.7
Strike accuracy
45.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
Luis Gurule Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
49.7
Strike accuracy
49.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
48.7s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 26, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus
Featherweight
Luis Saldana Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
32s
Bruno Souza
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
37.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Mario Piazzon Guilherme Uriel
Height 5' 9" 6' 1"
Weight 265 lbs. 265 lbs.
Reach 73" 74"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 28 29

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

No recorded UFC statistics for Mario Piazzon.

Stat Mario Piazzon Guilherme Uriel
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. — 0.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. — 0.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. — -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. — 1
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. — 0.0%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. — 0.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. — 0.0%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. — 1.374
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. — 0.747
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. — Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. — No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. — No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. — 0.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. — 0.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. — 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. — 100.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. — 0.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. — 0.0%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. — 0.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. — —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. — 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. — 0.006
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. — Early

Market Odds

Sportsbook Mario Piazzon Guilherme Uriel
US Decimal US Decimal
FanDuel +134 2.34 -159 1.63
BetMGM +155 2.55 -189 1.53
BetOnline +157 2.57 -179 1.56

Odds captured Aug 26, 2026, 12:01 AM

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