FightChoice Intelligence Report
Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje
https://fightchoice.app/events/ilia-topuria-vs-justin-gaethje-prediction-2026-06-15
Lightweight
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje · Jun 15, 2026
Stats Model Prediction
Model Breakdown
Ilia Topuria
Justin Gaethje
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight
53.3%
46.7%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight
59.3%
40.7%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight
12.1%
87.9%
Statistical Model β 21% weight
68.7%
31.3%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight
67.6%
32.4%
Ensemble
77.8%
22.2%
Predicted Winner
Ilia Topuria
77.8%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 0m57s (10m57s total)
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Ilia Topuria | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 9-1 | 11-5 |
| Height | 5' 7" | 5' 11" |
| Weight | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach | 69" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 29 | 37 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Ilia Topuria | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 20.9 | 28.2 |
| Strike accuracy | 50.1% | 57.6% |
| Takedowns | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Takedown accuracy | 57.1% | 26.7% |
| Sub attempts | 0.3 | 0 |
| Control time | 53.3s | 17.7s |
| Knockdowns | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 94.4% | 68.8% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 80.0% | 80.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -1 | 3 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 18 | 16 |
| head strike share | 68.3% | 66.2% |
| body strike share | 21.1% | 10.9% |
| leg strike share | 10.6% | 22.9% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 17.25 | 30.69 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.03 | 0.37 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.07 | 0.33 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 88.2% | 63.6% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 41.2% | 63.6% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 47.1% | 0.0% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| distance strike share | 77.1% | 83.8% |
| clinch strike share | 6.8% | 12.7% |
| ground strike share | 16.1% | 3.5% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 10:26 | 12:38 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,637.6 | 1,640.7 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.432 | 0.589 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Peak |
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Ilia Topuria
Justin Gaethje
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