FightChoice Intelligence Report
Kai Asakura vs Cameron Smotherman
https://fightchoice.app/events/kai-asakura-vs-cameron-smotherman-prediction-2026-05-30
Bantamweight
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · May 30, 2026
Stats Model Prediction
Model Breakdown
Kai Asakura
Cameron Smotherman
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight
55.2%
44.8%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight
57.2%
42.8%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight
73.1%
26.9%
Statistical Model β 21% weight
38.9%
61.1%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight
39.7%
60.3%
Ensemble
49.0%
51.0%
Predicted Winner
Cameron Smotherman
51.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 0m15s (10m15s total)
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Kai Asakura | Cameron Smotherman |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 22-6 | 12-7 |
| Height | 5' 8" | 5' 9" |
| Weight | 125 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach | 69" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 32 | 28 |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Kai Asakura | Cameron Smotherman |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 9.4 | 18.6 |
| Strike accuracy | 34.3% | 37.3% |
| Takedowns | 0 | 0 |
| Takedown accuracy | 0% | 0% |
| Sub attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Control time | 5.6s | 0.2s |
| Knockdowns | 0.20 | 0 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0 | 0.10 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 71.4% | 60.0% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 1 | -3 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 7 | 10 |
| head strike share | 70.2% | 60.2% |
| body strike share | 21.3% | 36.6% |
| leg strike share | 8.5% | 3.2% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 12.4 | 15.8 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 1 | 0.9 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0 | 1.19 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0 | 0.69 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 80.0% | 50.0% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 80.0% | 33.3% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| distance strike share | 97.9% | 95.2% |
| clinch strike share | 0.0% | 4.8% |
| ground strike share | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 6:11 | 11:43 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,491.0 | 1,469.6 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.036 | 0.055 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Decline |
Betting Edge
Recommended stake
15%
of bankroll
on Cameron Smotherman at 3.45 (research)
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Kai Asakura
Cameron Smotherman
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