FightChoice Intelligence Report

Patrick Rivera
vs
Adam Darby

Patrick Rivera vs Adam Darby

https://fightchoice.app/events/patrick-rivera-vs-adam-darby-prediction-2026-09-01

Welterweight

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4 · Sep 1, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Patrick Rivera Adam Darby
Deep Learning Model α 25% weight 29.7% 70.3%
Deep Learning Model ξ 27% weight 72.9% 27.1%
Statistical Model β 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 23% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 51.6% 48.4%
Predicted Winner
Patrick Rivera
51.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

73% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Patrick Rivera 28.3% 15.4% 7.9% 51.6%
Adam Darby 26.5% 14.5% 7.4% 48.4%
281 historical bouts 54.8% 29.9% 15.3% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

55% Reached the judges
45% Ended early
30% KO/TKO 15% Submission 5:00 Median finish, round 1
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Patrick Rivera Adam Darby
90% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 2, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
Featherweight
Morgan Charriere Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m51s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
53.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Manolo Zecchini
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
22%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
90% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 1, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan
Featherweight
Johnny Munoz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
62.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
12.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
194s
Nate Maness Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
42%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29.7s
88% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 23, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas
Flyweight
Igor Severino
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.5
Takedown accuracy
55.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
90s
Andre Lima Winner
Decision 2nd Rnd, 2m52s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
51.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
12s
86% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 10, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer
Lightweight
Bolaji Oki Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
39.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36.3s
Timmy Cuamba
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
35.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
38.3s
86% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 21, 2023
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
Welterweight
Gilbert Burns Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
83.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
155s
Neil Magny
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
85% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 20, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Women's Flyweight
Victoria Leonardo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
21%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Manon Fiorot Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m08s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.5
Strike accuracy
53%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42.5s
84% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 27, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
Welterweight
Tahir Abdullayev Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
42.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
64s
Jefferson Nascimento
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
48.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
84% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 1, 2012
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale
Featherweight
Max Holloway Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
39.3
Strike accuracy
44.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19s
Pat Schilling
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.3s
84% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 13, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
Women's Strawweight
Yazmin Jauregui Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.7
Strike accuracy
39.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s
Iasmin Lucindo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
36.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.3s
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 10, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen
Featherweight
Giga Chikadze Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
41.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.7s
Omar Morales
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
26.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21.3s
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 29, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen
Welterweight
Tim Means
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
40.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29s
Max Griffin Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
53.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
104.3s
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 6, 2013
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
Middleweight
Mark Munoz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
67.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
188.7s
Tim Boetsch
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
56.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
59.7s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 28, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze
Bantamweight
Ricky Turcios Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33.3
Strike accuracy
58.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
50.7s
Brady Hiestand
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
49.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
54.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
153.3s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 23, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Dos Anjos
Lightweight
Benson Henderson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
37%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Rafael Dos Anjos Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m31s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 17, 2024
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
Light Heavyweight
Zhang Mingyang Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
60.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Brendson Ribeiro
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
45.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Patrick Rivera Adam Darby
Weight 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Age 34 27

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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