FightChoice Intelligence Report

Brandon Holmes
vs
Modestino Rodrigues

Brandon Holmes vs Modestino Rodrigues

https://fightchoice.app/events/brandon-holmes-vs-modestino-rodrigues-prediction-2026-09-01

Middleweight

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4 · Sep 1, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 16, 2026, 21:53 UTC

Model Breakdown
Brandon Holmes Modestino Rodrigues
Deep Learning Model α 25% weight 67.7% 32.3%
Deep Learning Model ξ 27% weight 67.2% 32.8%
Statistical Model β 25% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 23% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 63.3% 36.7%
Predicted Winner
Brandon Holmes
63.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 3m45s (8m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

42% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 281 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 281 similar fights By submission *Based on 281 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Brandon Holmes 33.1% 19.8% 10.4% 63.3%
Modestino Rodrigues 19.2% 11.5% 6.0% 36.7%
281 historical bouts 52.3% 31.3% 16.4% 100.0%
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How Similar Fights Ended

281 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 281 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

52% Reached the judges
48% Ended early
31% KO/TKO 16% Submission 6:26 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Brandon Holmes Modestino Rodrigues
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 1, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson
Featherweight
Hacran Dias
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
36.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
30.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
111s
Andre Fili Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
36.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46.3s
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 22, 2007
UFC 76: Knockout
Lightweight
Jeremy Stephens Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
195.7s
Diego Saraiva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.7
Strike accuracy
37.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
43.7s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 14, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
Welterweight
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
39.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
50.3s
Aleksei Kunchenko
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
50.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 16, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Featherweight
Dooho Choi Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m29s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36
Strike accuracy
52.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.5s
Daniel Santos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36
Strike accuracy
39.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 19, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall
Women's Strawweight
Cory McKenna
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
75.3s
Elise Reed Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.3
Strike accuracy
54.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.3s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 5, 2019
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
Welterweight
Luke Jumeau
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
25.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Dhiego Lima Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
30.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
53s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 1, 2008
UFC 82: Pride of a Champion
Welterweight
Josh Koscheck Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m24s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
40.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
36.5s
Dustin Hazelett
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
33.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 30, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Bantamweight
Kai Asakura Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Cameron Smotherman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 16, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare
Featherweight
Ricardo Ramos Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m57s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
29.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
66s
Eduardo Garagorri
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 24, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg
Heavyweight
Roy Nelson Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m10s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
46s
Antonio Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.5
Strike accuracy
44.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.5s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 15, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz
Lightweight
Lando Vannata Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33
Strike accuracy
52.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.3s
Yancy Medeiros
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
35.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 11, 2023
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
Flyweight
Steve Erceg Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
59.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
12.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
129.7s
Alessandro Costa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
55.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.7s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 6, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho
Light Heavyweight
Oumar Sy Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
39.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
208s
Brendson Ribeiro
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
35.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 18, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman
Women's Flyweight
Molly McCann Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37.7
Strike accuracy
47.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
35.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
73s
Diana Belbita
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.7
Strike accuracy
38.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.7s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 18, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett
Middleweight
Phil Hawes Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
59
Strike accuracy
67.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
23.5s
Deron Winn
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
28.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Brandon Holmes Modestino Rodrigues
Height 6' 2" —
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 74" —
Stance Orthodox —
Age 29 22

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

No recorded UFC statistics for Modestino Rodrigues.

Stat Brandon Holmes Modestino Rodrigues
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 0.0% —
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 0.0% —
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 —
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 1 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 1.374 —
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.747 —
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% —
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% —
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% —
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 100.0% —
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. — —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1500 —
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.006 —
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Early —

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