FightChoice Intelligence Report
Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim
https://fightchoice.app/events/belal-muhammad-vs-gabriel-bonfim-prediction-2026-06-06
Welterweight
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Jun 6, 2026
Stats Model Prediction
Model Breakdown
Belal Muhammad
Gabriel Bonfim
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight
40.4%
59.6%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight
34.3%
65.7%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight
54.5%
45.5%
Statistical Model β 21% weight
30.6%
69.4%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight
48.2%
51.8%
Ensemble
21.1%
78.9%
Predicted Winner
Gabriel Bonfim
78.9%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m22s (11m22s total)
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Belal Muhammad | Gabriel Bonfim |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 15-6-1 | 7-1 |
| Height | 5' 11" | 6' 1" |
| Weight | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach | 72" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 38 | 29 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Belal Muhammad | Gabriel Bonfim |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 21.0 | 20.5 |
| Strike accuracy | 42.4% | 47.7% |
| Takedowns | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Takedown accuracy | 35.9% | 51.9% |
| Sub attempts | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Control time | 63.6s | 38.4s |
| Knockdowns | 0 | 0.05 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 71.4% | 95.2% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 40.0% | 100.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -3 | 5 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 21 | 21 |
| head strike share | 76.9% | 57.7% |
| body strike share | 14.5% | 14.1% |
| leg strike share | 8.6% | 28.2% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 19.19 | 15.58 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.85 | 0.53 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.82 | 0.38 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 1.38 | 0.29 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 20.0% | 85.0% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 13.3% | 20.0% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 6.7% | 65.0% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 16.7% | 100.0% |
| distance strike share | 87.5% | 91.5% |
| clinch strike share | 4.6% | 7.4% |
| ground strike share | 7.9% | 1.0% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 16:18 | 10:24 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,632.6 | 1,606.0 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.266 | 0.234 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Peak |
Betting Edge
Recommended stake
29%
of bankroll
on Gabriel Bonfim at 2.02 (research)
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Belal Muhammad
Gabriel Bonfim
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