FightChoice Intelligence Report
Daniil Donchenko vs Theodor Berggren
https://fightchoice.app/events/daniil-donchenko-vs-theodor-berggren-prediction-2026-06-27
Welterweight
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Jun 27, 2026
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Jun 25, 2026, 09:05 UTC
Model Breakdown
Daniil Donchenko
Theodor Berggren
Deep Learning Model α 25% weight
60.9%
39.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 27% weight
62.9%
37.1%
Statistical Model β 25% weight
50.0%
50.0%
Statistical Model ε 23% weight
50.0%
50.0%
Ensemble
63.6%
36.4%
Predicted Winner
Daniil Donchenko
63.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 2m22s (7m22s total)
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Daniil Donchenko | Theodor Berggren |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 14-2 | 8-4 |
| Height | 5' 11" | — |
| Weight | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach | 71" | — |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Age | 25 | 26 |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Daniil Donchenko | Theodor Berggren |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 35 | 11.5 |
| Strike accuracy | 62.3% | 35.9% |
| Takedowns | 0.2 | 0 |
| Takedown accuracy | 33.3% | 0% |
| Sub attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Control time | 38.3s | 8.5s |
| Knockdowns | 0.67 | 0 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0 | 1 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 100.0% | 64.3% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 100.0% | 40.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 4 | -1 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 4 | 14 |
| head strike share | 42.9% | 65.2% |
| body strike share | 26.2% | 30.4% |
| leg strike share | 31.0% | 4.3% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 12.17 | 35.5 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.17 | 0 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.25 | — |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.42 | — |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0 | — |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | No |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | Yes |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 75.0% | 88.9% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 75.0% | 44.4% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | 44.4% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| distance strike share | 79.0% | 87.0% |
| clinch strike share | 11.0% | 13.0% |
| ground strike share | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 8:41 | 6:35 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,547.1 | 1,485.5 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.036 | 0.052 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Decline |
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Daniil Donchenko | Theodor Berggren | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| Proline | -667 | 1.15 | +330 | 4.30 |
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Daniil Donchenko
Theodor Berggren
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