The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.
As Gabriel Bonfim and Sean Brady step into the Octagon at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady, fans can expect a clash of styles that echoes past matchups like Ricky Simon vs. Javid Basharat. Bonfim, with a striking output of 20.5 significant strikes per round and a staggering 85% finish rate, brings a dynamic, aggressive approach that could outpace Brady’s more calculated style. While both fighters share a reach of 72 inches, Bonfim’s height advantage at 6'1" allows him to leverage his striking from a distance, potentially keeping Brady at bay.
On the other side, Brady boasts a wealth of experience with a 9-2 record and a solid takedown average of 1.1 per round, which he’ll need to utilize to mitigate Bonfim’s striking prowess. His 53.2% strike accuracy suggests he can effectively land his shots, but he'll face a tough challenge countering Bonfim’s high volume and finishing ability. With both fighters in their peak career stages and a notable gap in win rates—95.2% for Bonfim versus 81.8% for Brady—this bout carries the tension of an intriguing mismatch that can tip at any moment, much like Gadelha vs. Hill in 2020.
Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 17, 2026, 00:06 UTC
Model Breakdown
Gabriel BonfimSean Brady
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight76.2%23.8%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight73.9%26.1%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight40.0%60.0%
Statistical Model β 21% weight69.8%30.2%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight57.4%42.6%
Ensemble70.6%29.4%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
Gabriel Bonfim's win streak and age advantage over Sean Brady are key drivers for the prediction. The ensemble favors Gabriel Bonfim (71%), despite a split among individual models, due to calibrated weighting.
Statistical Model β: Model β favors Gabriel Bonfim, citing Gabriel Bonfim's better win rate and age advantage over Sean Brady.
Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Gabriel Bonfim, noting Gabriel Bonfim's Elo rating edge and Sean Brady's clinch strike share.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Gabriel Bonfim
70.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
4th Round at 3m45s (18m45s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
80%63%53%46%42%
Rnd 1Rnd 2Rnd 3Rnd 4Rnd 5
42%
Chance of Decision
The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.
Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.
How Similar Fights Ended
286 historical bouts
Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 286 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.
50%Reached the judges
50%Ended early
35%KO/TKO16%Submission5:34Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came
Rnd 169
Rnd 246
Rnd 325
Rnd 42
Rnd 52
This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
85%How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.Match
82%How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.Match
79%How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.Match
77%How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.Match
76%How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.Match
76%How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.Match
76%How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.Match
76%How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.Match
75%How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.Match
75%How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.Match
75%How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.Match
74%How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.Match
74%How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.Match
74%How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.Match
73%How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.Match
Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
Stat
Gabriel Bonfim
Sean Brady
UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes
20.5
18.7
13.2
Strike accuracy
47.7%
53.2%
43.9%
Takedowns
0.7
1.1
0.4
Takedown accuracy
51.9%
51.5%
33.0%
Sub attempts
0.3
0.3
0.2
Control time
38.4s
130.6s
48.9s
Knockdowns
0.05
0.03
0.08
Knockdowns absorbed
0.05
0.03
0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rateWins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights.
95.2%
81.8%
45.8%
recent win rateWin rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure.
100.0%
80.0%
37.6%
win streakCurrent run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses.
5
1
-2
total fightsTotal recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC.
21
11
—
head strike shareShare of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%.
57.7%
72.1%
—
body strike shareShare of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%.
14.1%
6.7%
—
leg strike shareShare of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%.
28.2%
21.2%
—
sig strikes absorbedSignificant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better.
15.58
12.72
15.2
takedowns absorbedTakedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better.
0.21
0.06
0.4
cardio sig ratioThis fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record.
0.53
0.46
0.52
cardio defence ratioWhat OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record.
0.38
0.53
0.56
cardio takedown ratioThis fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record.
0.29
0.82
0.42
is orthodoxWhether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox.
Yes
Yes
—
is southpawWhether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw.
No
No
—
switch stanceWhether the fighter is recorded as switching stance.
No
No
—
finish rateShare of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights.
85.0%
44.4%
46.5%
KO win rateShare of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights.
20.0%
0.0%
27.9%
sub win rateShare of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights.
65.0%
44.4%
18.7%
been stopped rateShare of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%.
100.0%
100.0%
52.3%
distance strike shareShare of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%.
91.5%
71.8%
—
clinch strike shareShare of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%.
7.4%
4.0%
—
ground strike shareShare of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%.
1.0%
24.2%
—
avg fight duration (m:ss)Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them.
10:24
13:21
—
Elo ratingA UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value.
1,606.0
1,621.0
1500
PageRankHow central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill.
0.259
0.186
0.069
career stageForm over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early.
