FightChoice Intelligence Report

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Mantas Kondratavicius vs Wes Schultz

https://fightchoice.app/events/mantas-kondratavicius-vs-wes-schultz-prediction-2026-11-07

Middleweight

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Nov 7, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expand

Mantas Kondratavicius and Wes Schultz are set to clash in a thrilling Middleweight showdown at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady. With a career record of 9-1, Kondratavicius enters the octagon boasting impressive striking stats, averaging 25 significant strikes per round at a 70.1% accuracy rate. In contrast, Schultz, with a 9-4 record, has struggled to find his rhythm, throwing only 7.8 strikes per round and landing them at just 53.4%. This striking disparity sets the stage for an intriguing dynamic, reminiscent of the matchup between Jimi Manuwa and Aleksandar Rakic at UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith, where a more aggressive fighter overpowered a less effective opponent.

Both fighters stand at 6'2", but Schultz holds a slight reach advantage of 77 inches. However, Kondratavicius compensates with superior grappling control, averaging 122 seconds per round compared to Schultz's 38 seconds. This contest features two fighters at different career stages, with Kondratavicius on a rise and Schultz in decline, a narrative that often leads to decisive outcomes in the UFC. With Kondratavicius firmly in his prime at 27 years old and riding a two-fight win streak, while Schultz is facing a tough challenge after losing his last bout, the odds are heavily favored toward Kondratavicius, making this a must-watch fight for fans.

#MantasKondratavicius #WesSchultz #UFCFightNight #Middleweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 17, 2026, 00:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Mantas Kondratavicius Wes Schultz
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 54.9% 45.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 72.7% 27.3%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 77.7% 22.3%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 75.7% 24.3%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 72.2% 27.8%
Ensemble 79.8% 20.2%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Mantas Kondratavicius's superior win rate and lower absorbed knockdowns are key drivers for the prediction. The ensemble favors Mantas Kondratavicius, despite some models highlighting Wes Schultz's striking advantages.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Mantas Kondratavicius, citing Mantas Kondratavicius's past prime and lower sig strikes absorbed, alongside Wes Schultz's Elo rating.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Mantas Kondratavicius, pointing to Wes Schultz's body strike share, ground strike share, and Elo rating.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Mantas Kondratavicius
79.8%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 1m15s (6m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

41% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Mantas Kondratavicius Wes Schultz
Career Record 9-1 9-4
Height 6' 2" 6' 2"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 75" 77"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 27 30

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expand

How Similar Fights Ended

4 historical bouts

Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Mantas Kondratavicius Wes Schultz
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 1, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith
Light Heavyweight
Aleksandar Rakic Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
28.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
60% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 16, 2010
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
Welterweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
18.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.7s
Mike Pyle Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
47.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
38.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
144.7s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 25, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
Lightweight
Joe Solecki Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m55s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
265.5s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0.5
Strike accuracy
8.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 14, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
Light Heavyweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
74%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
48.7s
Nikita Krylov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
77.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
37.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
226.3s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 1, 2011
UFC 125: Resolution
Welterweight
Dong Hyun Kim Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
41.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
166.3s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
42.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
39s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 8, 2013
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum
Featherweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34
Strike accuracy
51.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Rodrigo Damm Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.3
Strike accuracy
46.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34.3s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 19, 2007
UFC Fight Night: Thomas vs Florian
Lightweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
48s
Cole Miller Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
3.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
225.7s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 6, 2023
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
Featherweight
Movsar Evloev Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.3
Strike accuracy
68.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
170s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
53.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.7s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 18, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
Bantamweight
Montel Jackson Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
58.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
201s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.7
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
26.7s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 19, 2026
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Featherweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
43.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Patricio Pitbull Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
38
Strike accuracy
50.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 18, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman
Flyweight
Alden Coria Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
34.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
45.7s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
31.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
55.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
85.7s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 28, 2017
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
Middleweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45s
Eric Spicely Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m14s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
51s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 17, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland
Lightweight
Rafa Garcia Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
54.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
123.3s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
17.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 28, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal
Flyweight
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
16.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Fredy Serrano Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
53% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 26, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie
Bantamweight
Rinya Nakamura Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
63.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
188.7s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
22.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Mantas Kondratavicius Wes Schultz UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 25 7.8 13.2
Strike accuracy 70.1% 53.4% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.7 0.2 0.4
Takedown accuracy 50% 10% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.3 1.2 0.2
Control time 122s 38s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.33 0.20 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.60 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 100.0% 62.5% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 40.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 2 -1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 2 8 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 81.3% 43.6% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 18.7% 51.3% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% 5.1% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 5.67 13 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.33 0.4 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0.23 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0.03 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 80.0% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 20.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 60.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 100.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 56.0% 74.4% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 22.7% 25.6% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 21.3% 0.0% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 15:00 6:11 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,514.0 1,484.1 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.012 0.027 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Early Decline —

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