FightChoice Intelligence Report
Malcolm Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz
https://fightchoice.app/events/malcolm-wellmaker-vs-juan-diaz-prediction-2026-05-16
Bantamweight
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · May 16, 2026
Stats Model Prediction
Model Breakdown
Malcolm Wellmaker
Juan Diaz
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight
54.0%
46.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight
62.7%
37.3%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight
43.9%
56.1%
Statistical Model β 21% weight
50.0%
50.0%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight
50.0%
50.0%
Ensemble
63.8%
36.2%
Predicted Winner
Malcolm Wellmaker
63.8%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 2m00s (7m00s total)
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Malcolm Wellmaker | Juan Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 10-2 | 16-1-1 |
| Height | 5' 10" | — |
| Weight | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach | 71" | — |
| Stance | Switch | — |
| Age | 32 | 28 |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Malcolm Wellmaker | Juan Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 17.6 | 6.5 |
| Strike accuracy | 53.5% | 52% |
| Takedowns | 0 | 2.5 |
| Takedown accuracy | 0% | 62.5% |
| Sub attempts | 0 | 0.5 |
| Control time | 11.4s | 114s |
| Knockdowns | 0.29 | 0 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0 | 0 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 75.0% | 80.0% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -2 | 3 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 8 | 5 |
| head strike share | 40.7% | 23.1% |
| body strike share | 46.3% | 23.1% |
| leg strike share | 13.0% | 53.8% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 16.14 | 7.5 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 1.14 | 0 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.35 | — |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.97 | — |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.000 | — |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | No | No |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | Yes | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| distance strike share | 77.2% | 76.9% |
| clinch strike share | 22.8% | 15.4% |
| ground strike share | 0.0% | 7.7% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 7:11 | 9:08 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,496.4 | 1,516.6 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.067 | 0.050 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Peak |
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Malcolm Wellmaker
Juan Diaz
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