FightChoice Intelligence Report

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Cody Chovancek vs SuYoung You

https://fightchoice.app/events/cody-chovancek-vs-suyoung-you-prediction-2026-10-17

Bantamweight

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expand

As Cody Chovancek steps into the Octagon with an unblemished 9-0 record, he faces off against SuYoung You, a seasoned fighter with a solid 14-4 resume. This bantamweight clash is set to be a thrilling showdown, showcasing contrasting styles. Chovancek, standing at 5'8" with a reach of 67", brings a unique switch stance to the fight, while You, a 5'6" orthodox fighter, has proven experience with a higher striking output, averaging 11 significant strikes per round. However, it's worth noting that Chovancek boasts an impressive finish rate of 61.5%—a testament to his ability to end fights decisively.

What makes this matchup particularly intriguing is the statistical edge Chovancek holds in several key areas. He has a staggering win rate of 92.9% and a perfect recent win rate of 100%. In contrast, You has been stopped in 100% of his losses, raising questions about his durability when faced with Chovancek's finishing power. Historically, this fight has echoes of previous bouts where an undefeated prospect clashed with a veteran—think of the dynamics when Khamzat Chimaev faced Gerald Meerschaert, where the youth and momentum of the newcomer proved too much for the seasoned fighter. With both fighters in their peak stages, the Octagon is set for a showdown that could redefine their careers.

#CodyChovancek #SuYoungYou #UFCFightNight #Bantamweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 26, 2026, 00:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Cody Chovancek SuYoung You
Deep Learning Model α 30% weight 46.2% 53.8%
Deep Learning Model ξ 29% weight 55.7% 44.3%
Statistical Model β 24% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 17% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 51.0% 49.0%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

SuYoung You's superior win rate and recent win rate, along with a significant edge in sig strike accuracy, are the strongest drivers favoring SuYoung You. However, the ensemble prediction favors Cody Chovancek (51%) due to calibration and weighting, despite a majority of individual models predicting a SuYoung You victory.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors SuYoung You, citing SuYoung You's edge in significant strikes absorbed and a better win rate against Cody Chovancek.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors SuYoung You, noting SuYoung You's advantage in distance striking share and Cody Chovancek's orthodox stance.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Cody Chovancek
51.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

72% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

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Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Cody Chovancek SuYoung You
Career Record 9-1 15-4
Height 5' 8" 5' 6"
Weight 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach 67" 65"
Stance Switch Orthodox
Age 28 30

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Cody Chovancek SuYoung You UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 0.3 9 13.2
Strike accuracy 14.3% 52.7% 43.9%
Takedowns 0 1.2 0.4
Takedown accuracy 0% 45.9% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0 0.1 0.2
Control time 4s 117s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0 0 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.07 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 86.7% 80.0% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 80.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 15 5 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 100.0% 69.0% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% 15.1% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 0.0% 15.9% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 1.67 7.86 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 2 0.07 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 1.45 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 1.92 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0.36 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. Yes No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 61.5% 25.0% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 46.2% 0.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 15.4% 25.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 50.0% 100.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 84.1% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 11.1% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 100.0% 4.8% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 14:19 13:05 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,485.3 1,543.1 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.088 0.064 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak —

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