FightChoice Intelligence Report

vs

Javad Mahjoub vs Joel Faglier

https://fightchoice.app/events/javad-mahjoub-vs-joel-faglier-prediction-2026-10-17

Heavyweight

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expand

As Javad Mahjoub prepares to clash with Joel Faglier at UFC Fight Night, he steps into the octagon with an impressive record that boasts a flawless 100% win rate after five fights. At 34 years old, Mahjoub finds himself in the peak of his career, riding a five-fight win streak, and he brings a formidable 80% finish rate to the table, with 60% of those victories coming by knockout. Faglier, at just 25, is still an unknown in the heavyweight division, entering this fight without a recorded match in the UFC, which could be a daunting challenge against an established contender like Mahjoub.

The matchup echoes the drama of past heavyweight encounters, where experience and proven track records often dictate the tempo of the fight. Mahjoub's striking accuracy has seen him absorb significantly fewer strikes, averaging just 1.374 absorbed per fight compared to the UFC average of 15.22, showcasing his defensive prowess. If history tells us anything, it's that fighters like Mahjoub, who come in with a perfect record and a wealth of experience, can often dominate their less seasoned opponents. Fans will be eager to see if Faglier can rise to the occasion or if Mahjoub will continue his ascent, cementing himself as a heavyweight to watch.

#JavadMahjoub #JoelFaglier #UFCFightNight #Heavyweight #UFC #MMA

Copy for Facebook Copy for Twitter/X

Prediction IntelClick here to expand

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 8, 2026, 00:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Javad Mahjoub Joel Faglier
Deep Learning Model α 30% weight 32.6% 67.4%
Deep Learning Model ξ 29% weight 73.4% 26.6%
Statistical Model β 24% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 17% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 53.1% 46.9%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble favors Javad Mahjoub, driven by Javad Mahjoub's win rate and Joel Faglier's significant strike accuracy. Despite two models favoring Joel Faglier due to age and physical advantages, calibration and weighting led to the final combined prediction favoring Javad Mahjoub.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Joel Faglier, citing Joel Faglier's age and that Joel Faglier is past prime.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Javad Mahjoub, highlighting Joel Faglier's distance strike share and orthodox stance.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Javad Mahjoub
53.1%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
1st Round at 1m15s (1m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

54% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Share This Intel Report
Fighter IntelClick here to expand

Tale of the Tape

Stat Javad Mahjoub Joel Faglier
Career Record 5-1 7-0
Age 34 25

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Export as Image

Statistics IntelClick here to expand

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Javad Mahjoub Joel Faglier UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 30 25.5 13.2
Strike accuracy 52.6% 67.1% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.5 0.5 0.4
Takedown accuracy 33.3% 100% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0 0 0.2
Control time 48s 1s 48.9s
Knockdowns 1 0 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 1 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 83.3% 100.0% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 100.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 15 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 6 15 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 90.0% 37.3% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 8.3% 51.0% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 1.7% 11.8% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 25.5 30 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.5 0.5 0.4
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No No —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 80.0% 86.7% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 60.0% 40.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 20.0% 46.7% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 100.0% 0.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 61.7% 86.3% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 10.0% 5.9% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 28.3% 7.8% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 7:11 7:11 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1484 1516 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.042 0.097 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak —
Market IntelClick here to expand

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Javad Mahjoub 53.1% 2.10 47.6% +11.5%
Joel Faglier 46.9% 1.77 56.5% -17.0%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 1% of bankroll on Javad Mahjoub at 1.70 (proline) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Javad Mahjoub Joel Faglier
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +100 2.00 -154 1.65
DraftKings +110 2.10 -130 1.77
FanDuel +112 2.12 -132 1.76
BetMGM +100 2.00 -120 1.83
Bovada +112 2.12 -133 1.75
BetOnline +114 2.14 -133 1.75

Odds captured Oct 17, 2026, 6:03 PM

Export as Image

More from UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius Kyle Nelson vs Cristian Perez Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle Daukaus Louis Jourdain vs Timmy Cuamba Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr Tanner Boser vs Jhonata Diniz Julien LeBlanc vs Nick Galanti Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow Melissa Croden vs Chelsea Chandler Cody Chovancek vs SuYoung You

Put your own money-free bets on Javad Mahjoub vs Joel Faglier

Create a free account to run any matchup through our AI ensemble of statistical models, track a fantasy bankroll, and bet the card. No card required.

Create your free account