FightChoice Intelligence Report

Louis Jourdain
vs
Timmy Cuamba

Louis Jourdain vs Timmy Cuamba

https://fightchoice.app/events/louis-jourdain-vs-timmy-cuamba-prediction-2026-10-17

Bantamweight

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

As Louis Jourdain prepares to face Timmy Cuamba at UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott, fans are buzzing about the clash of styles in this bantamweight bout. Jourdain enters the octagon with a career record of 9-3, riding a four-fight win streak and boasting an impressive finish rate of 66.7%. Meanwhile, Cuamba, with a record of 10-4, is coming off a recent downturn, having lost his last fight, and will need to dig deep to turn things around. Both fighters stand at 5'9", but Cuamba holds a slight reach advantage at 71 inches compared to Jourdain's 69 inches, which could play a crucial role in their striking exchanges.

Statistically, Cuamba has shown more volume in his striking, averaging 13.6 significant strikes per round with a striking accuracy of 45.9%. However, Jourdain's recent performances indicate that he absorbs significantly fewer strikes and has a higher win rate of 83.3%, compared to Cuamba's 76.2%. This matchup echoes the dynamics seen in past fights where a fighter on a hot streak faced an opponent struggling to regain form. The pressure is on Cuamba to reclaim his momentum while Jourdain looks to extend his winning ways and solidify his position in the bantamweight ranks.

#LouisJourdain #TimmyCuamba #UFCFightNight #Bantamweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 26, 2026, 00:06 UTC

Model Breakdown
Louis Jourdain Timmy Cuamba
Deep Learning Model α 30% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 29% weight 57.5% 42.5%
Statistical Model β 24% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 17% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 53.1% 46.9%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Timmy Cuamba's superior sig strike accuracy and head strike share are the strongest drivers for the prediction. Despite some models favoring Louis Jourdain, the ensemble prediction favors Louis Jourdain (53%) due to calibrated weighting of individual model outputs.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Louis Jourdain, citing his win rate and higher Elo rating over Timmy Cuamba.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Timmy Cuamba, based on his greater distance and head strike share against Louis Jourdain.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Louis Jourdain
53.1%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

53% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Louis Jourdain Timmy Cuamba
Career Record 9-4 11-4
Height 5' 9" 5' 9"
Weight 135 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 69" 71"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 29 27

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Louis Jourdain Timmy Cuamba UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 4.5 13.3 13.2
Strike accuracy 25% 45.6% 43.9%
Takedowns 0 0.7 0.4
Takedown accuracy 0% 43.5% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.5 0.1 0.2
Control time 0s 61.2s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0 0.07 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.13 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 78.9% 77.3% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 60.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 19 22 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 22.2% 62.3% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 33.3% 25.1% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 44.4% 12.6% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 11 15.07 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 2 0.33 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0.65 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0.45 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 1 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 66.7% 58.8% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 41.2% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 17.6% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 75.0% 60.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 100.0% 79.4% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 9.5% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 11.1% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 7:48 11:31 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,483.4 1,503.5 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.077 0.109 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak —
Market IntelClick here to expandHow the betting market prices this fight compared to our model's number.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Louis Jourdain Timmy Cuamba
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -208 1.48 +128 2.28

Odds captured Oct 18, 2026, 12:02 AM

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