FightChoice Intelligence Report
Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller
https://fightchoice.app/events/katlyn-cerminara-vs-mackenzie-stiller-prediction-2026-10-17
Women's Flyweight
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Oct 17, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
One of these fighters isn't yet in our fight database, so we can't generate a prediction for this matchup.
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Katlyn Cerminara | Mackenzie Stiller |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 12-6 | 0-1 |
| Height | 5' 9" | 5' 2" |
| Weight | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach | 68" | 62" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 37 | 27 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Katlyn Cerminara | Mackenzie Stiller | UFC AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | |||
| Strikes | 22.7 | 19 | 13.2 |
| Strike accuracy | 35.2% | 32.8% | 43.9% |
| Takedowns | 0.1 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Takedown accuracy | 15.6% | 0% | 33.0% |
| Sub attempts | 0.1 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Control time | 23.1s | 0s | 48.9s |
| Knockdowns | 0.04 | 0 | 0.08 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.02 | 1 | 0.13 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | |||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 66.7% | 76.9% | 45.8% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 60.0% | 60.0% | 37.6% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 1 | -2 | -2 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 18 | 13 | — |
| head strike share | 62.1% | 47.4% | — |
| body strike share | 23.9% | 36.8% | — |
| leg strike share | 14.0% | 15.8% | — |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 21.98 | 32 | 15.2 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.52 | 0 | 0.4 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 1.09 | — | 0.52 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.94 | — | 0.56 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 1 | — | 0.42 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes | — |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No | — |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No | — |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 8.3% | 90.0% | 46.5% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 8.3% | 0.0% | 27.9% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | 90.0% | 18.7% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 33.3% | 66.7% | 52.3% |
| distance strike share | 86.7% | 100.0% | — |
| clinch strike share | 7.7% | 0.0% | — |
| ground strike share | 5.5% | 0.0% | — |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 13:39 | 4:46 | — |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,582.7 | 1,487.2 | 1500 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.116 | 0.055 | 0.069 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Decline | — |
Market Intel
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Katlyn Cerminara | Mackenzie Stiller | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| Proline | -333 | 1.30 | +190 | 2.90 |
Odds captured Oct 17, 2026, 6:03 PM
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Katlyn Cerminara
Mackenzie Stiller
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