FightChoice Intelligence Report

Colby Thicknesse
vs
Asaf Chopurov

Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov

https://fightchoice.app/events/colby-thicknesse-vs-asaf-chopurov-prediction-2026-10-24

Bantamweight

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Oct 24, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

As Colby Thicknesse steps into the octagon against Asaf Chopurov at UFC 333, we're witnessing a classic showdown in the Bantamweight division where experience meets potential. Thicknesse, with a solid UFC record of 2-1, stands at 5'7" with a reach of 69 inches, ready to leverage his striking game. Averaging 16.2 significant strikes per round with a head strike share of 55.5%, Thicknesse has shown he can keep the pressure on his opponents. His control time per round is impressive, clocking in at 71.8 seconds, which suggests he'll look to dictate the pace and position of the fight.

On the other hand, Chopurov enters as a relative newcomer, with no recorded fights in the UFC yet, leaving a cloud of uncertainty around his capabilities. While Thicknesse has shown a winning rate of 66.7% and a two-fight win streak, Chopurov's youth at just 24 may play to his advantage if he can adapt quickly. Historically, bouts like this have seen early-career fighters struggle against seasoned veterans, reminiscent of when Charles Oliveira faced Jim Miller early in their respective careers. Will Thicknesse's experience prevail, or will Chopurov surprise everyone with his potential in this electrifying matchup?

#ColbyThicknesse #AsafChopurov #UFC333 #Bantamweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 3, 2026, 18:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Colby Thicknesse Asaf Chopurov
Deep Learning Model α 30% weight 51.0% 49.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 29% weight 59.5% 40.5%
Statistical Model β 24% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 17% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Ensemble 54.4% 45.6%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Colby Thicknesse's reach advantage over Asaf Chopurov is a significant factor across multiple models. Model ζ also points to Asaf Chopurov's striking accuracy and win rate as favoring Colby Thicknesse. The ENSEMBLE prediction favors Colby Thicknesse (54%).

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Colby Thicknesse, citing Colby Thicknesse's reach advantage over Asaf Chopurov and Colby Thicknesse being past his prime.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Colby Thicknesse, based on Colby Thicknesse's reach advantage over Asaf Chopurov and Asaf Chopurov's striking tendencies.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Colby Thicknesse
54.4%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

56% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Colby Thicknesse Asaf Chopurov
Career Record 9-1 11-0
Height 5' 7" —
Weight 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach 69" —
Stance Orthodox —
Age 27 24

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Colby Thicknesse Asaf Chopurov UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 16.2 — 13.2
Strike accuracy 41.1% — 43.9%
Takedowns 0.2 — 0.4
Takedown accuracy 7.1% — 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.6 — 0.2
Control time 71.8s — 48.9s
Knockdowns 0 — 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 — 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 66.7% 97.9% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 66.7% 100.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 2 21 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 3 47 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 55.5% 0.0% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 28.1% 0.0% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 16.4% 0.0% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 14.67 1.374 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.44 0.747 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.45 — 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.11 — 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1 — 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 52.2% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 23.9% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 28.3% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 0.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 63.7% 0.0% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.8% 0.0% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 29.5% 0.0% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 15:00 — —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,513.1 1500 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.020 0.315 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Early Peak —
Market IntelClick here to expandHow the betting market prices this fight compared to our model's number.

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Colby Thicknesse 54.4% 5.10 19.6% +177.5%
Asaf Chopurov 45.6% 1.18 84.7% -46.2%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 21% of bankroll on Colby Thicknesse at 4.50 (proline) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Colby Thicknesse Asaf Chopurov
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +360 4.60 -769 1.13
DraftKings +410 5.10 -556 1.18
FanDuel +350 4.50 -526 1.19
BetMGM +400 5.00 -556 1.18
Bovada +410 5.10 -556 1.18
BetOnline +423 5.23 -556 1.18

Odds captured Oct 21, 2026, 6:02 AM

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