FightChoice Intelligence Report

Iasmin Lucindo
vs
Nicolle Caliari

Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari

https://fightchoice.app/events/iasmin-lucindo-vs-nicolle-caliari-prediction-2026-10-24

Women's Strawweight

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Oct 24, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

As Iasmin Lucindo steps into the octagon against Nicolle Caliari at UFC 333, fans are set for a compelling clash in the Women's Strawweight division. With a career record of 18-6, Lucindo boasts a striking accuracy of 45.5% and an impressive win rate of 78.3%, compared to Caliari's 50.0% win rate and 39% striking accuracy. Both fighters are the same height at 5'3", but Lucindo's reach advantage (66 inches to 62 inches) could play a pivotal role in dictating the distance of the fight. This matchup has echoes of past bouts where striking efficiency met grappling prowess, reminiscent of John Lineker versus Rob Font, where a calculated striking game prevailed.

Caliari, with a finish rate of 100%, brings a relentless pressure that could surprise Lucindo, who has a higher control time per round but only attempts 0.8 takedowns compared to Caliari's 0.9. With both fighters entering with one-fight win streaks, this battle presents a dynamic juxtaposition of Lucindo's technical striking and Caliari's grappling approach. The odds reflect a noticeable gap in experience and skill, with Lucindo favored heavily, making this not just a fight of two fighters, but a potential showcase of emerging talent against crafty grappling.

#IasminLucindo #NicolleCaliari #UFC333 #WomensStrawweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 20, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Iasmin Lucindo Nicolle Caliari
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 51.0% 49.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 57.3% 42.7%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 62.0% 38.0%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 75.7% 24.3%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 81.1% 18.9%
Ensemble 72.3% 27.7%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Iasmin Lucindo's lower sig strikes absorbed and younger age were the most influential factors across models. The ensemble favors Iasmin Lucindo (72%), despite a split among individual models regarding the impact of reach and Elo rating.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Iasmin Lucindo, citing her younger age and lower sig strikes absorbed compared to Nicolle Caliari.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Iasmin Lucindo, pointing to her lower sig strikes absorbed and Nicolle Caliari's shorter reach.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Iasmin Lucindo
72.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

66% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 286 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 286 similar fights By submission *Based on 286 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Iasmin Lucindo 39.2% 22.5% 10.6% 72.3%
Nicolle Caliari 15.0% 8.6% 4.1% 27.7%
286 historical bouts 54.2% 31.1% 14.7% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Iasmin Lucindo Nicolle Caliari
Career Record 18-6 9-4
Height 5' 3" 5' 3"
Weight 115 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach 66" 62"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 24 29

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

286 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 286 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

54% Reached the judges
46% Ended early
31% KO/TKO 15% Submission 5:28 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Iasmin Lucindo Nicolle Caliari
84% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 14, 2016
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
Bantamweight
John Lineker Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.7
Strike accuracy
43.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
51s
Rob Font
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
35.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 27, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping
Bantamweight
Francisco Rivera
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
41.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Brad Pickett Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
28.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
66.7s
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 21, 2013
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
Light Heavyweight
Jon Jones Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.8
Strike accuracy
61.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
9.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.4s
Alexander Gustafsson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
38.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
12.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 16, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Bantamweight
Benardo Sopaj Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.5
Strike accuracy
66.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
57s
Timmy Cuamba
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.5
Strike accuracy
36.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.5s
83% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 11, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili
Bantamweight
Davey Grant Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
47.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.3s
Raphael Assuncao
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
72.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
41.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
85.7s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 26, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Featherweight
Diego Brandao Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
82.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Katsunori Kikuno
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 6, 2021
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Heavyweight
Chris Barnett Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m23s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
54.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
Gian Villante
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
58.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 10, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer
Featherweight
Dan Ige Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
57.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Andre Fili
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
24.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
82% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 15, 2017
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Lightweight
Rashid Magomedov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
39.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
King Green
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
52.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
49.7s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 28, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
Bantamweight
Martin Day
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
75%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
Anderson Dos Santos Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m35s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
55%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
177s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 24, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg
Flyweight
Dustin Ortiz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.3
Strike accuracy
20%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
58.7s
Jussier Formiga Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.7
Strike accuracy
23.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
182.3s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 26, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson
Flyweight
Kyoji Horiguchi Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
34.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.7s
Chico Camus
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
33%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 8, 2012
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
Welterweight
Matt Brown Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m31s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.5
Strike accuracy
64.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
29.5s
Mike Swick
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.5
Strike accuracy
31%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
90s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 9, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Bantamweight
Jean Matsumoto Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.7
Strike accuracy
40.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
18.7s
Miles Johns
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.7
Strike accuracy
45.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
62.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
64s
81% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2012
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
Light Heavyweight
Forrest Griffin Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.3
Strike accuracy
32.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17s
Tito Ortiz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
38.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
55.3s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Iasmin Lucindo Nicolle Caliari UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 15.9 13.2 13.2
Strike accuracy 45.5% 39% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.8 0.9 0.4
Takedown accuracy 55.6% 25.8% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.1 0.2
Control time 74.5s 92.4s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0 0 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.11 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 78.3% 50.0% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 40.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 23 8 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 66.0% 67.2% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 26.4% 22.7% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 7.5% 10.1% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 13.8 25.89 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.25 0 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.84 0.92 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.76 0.94 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.5 0.75 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 61.1% 100.0% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 44.4% 50.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 16.7% 50.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 40.0% 50.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 83.6% 84.9% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 9.7% 5.9% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.6% 9.2% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 14:06 13:13 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,549.4 1,485.5 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.108 0.037 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline —
Market IntelClick here to expandHow the betting market prices this fight compared to our model's number.

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Iasmin Lucindo 72.3% 1.24 80.6% -10.3%
Nicolle Caliari 27.7% 4.30 23.3% +19.1%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Iasmin Lucindo Nicolle Caliari
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -455 1.22 +250 3.50
DraftKings -417 1.24 +330 4.30
FanDuel -400 1.25 +285 3.85
BetMGM -370 1.27 +300 4.00
Bovada -400 1.25 +315 4.15

Odds captured Oct 21, 2026, 6:02 AM

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