FightChoice Intelligence Report

Kody Steele
vs
Noah Gugnon

Kody Steele vs Noah Gugnon

https://fightchoice.app/events/kody-steele-vs-noah-gugnon-prediction-2026-10-24

Lightweight

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Oct 24, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

As Kody Steele prepares to face Noah Gugnon at UFC 333, the dynamics of this lightweight clash are shaping up to be intriguing. Steele, with an impressive career record of 8-1, has shown he can deliver a striking arsenal, averaging 15 significant strikes per round, while Gugnon, boasting a record of 10-2, has a striking accuracy that stands tall at 45.5%. This matchup brings to mind the recent bout between Aaron Phillips and Gaston Bolanos, where striking volume and efficiency played a pivotal role in determining the outcome.

Gugnon's grappling prowess also can't be overlooked, as he averages 40 seconds of control time per round despite a lower takedown rate. Meanwhile, Steele’s defensive numbers show he absorbs more strikes per round, suggesting he may need to avoid the exchanges that favor Gugnon's efficiency. With both fighters in their prime and Gugnon riding a six-fight win streak, this contest has the potential for fireworks, especially considering Steele's 80% finish rate which could make for a thrilling finish. The odds may favor Gugnon slightly, but the stakes are high for both, ensuring a highly competitive atmosphere in the octagon.

#KodySteele #NoahGugnon #UFC333 #Lightweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 20, 2026, 00:03 UTC

Model Breakdown
Kody Steele Noah Gugnon
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 45.0% 55.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 62.5% 37.5%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 54.7% 45.3%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 63.2% 36.8%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 61.8% 38.2%
Ensemble 61.4% 38.6%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Kody Steele. Key drivers include K.S.−N.G. reach and N.G. leg strike share, which consistently favor Steele across multiple models. Despite some models noting N.G.'s advantages in areas like win streak or absorbed strikes, the combined prediction leans towards Steele due to the aggregate strength of these factors.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Kody Steele, citing K.S.−N.G. reach and K.S. past prime, despite N.G. win streak.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Kody Steele, based on N.G. leg strike share and K.S.−N.G. reach, despite N.G. distance strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Kody Steele
61.4%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

49% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Kody Steele Noah Gugnon
Career Record 8-1 10-2
Height 5' 9" —
Weight 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 71" —
Stance Orthodox —
Age 31 26

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

3 historical bouts

Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Kody Steele Noah Gugnon
58% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 15, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen
Bantamweight
Aaron Phillips
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
43.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
120.3s
Gaston Bolanos Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
49.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
32s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 24, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2
Flyweight
Mateus Mendonca
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
174.7s
Jesus Aguilar Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
52.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
97s
56% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 15, 2021
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
Middleweight
Jacare Souza
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
57.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
53s
Andre Muniz Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
58.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
70s
53% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 14, 2015
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
Women's Bantamweight
Germaine de Randamie Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m02s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.5
Strike accuracy
34.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.5s
Larissa Pacheco
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
13.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.5s
52% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 13, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2
Featherweight
Jean Silva Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m12s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
69.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8s
Westin Wilson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
30.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
50% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 28, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Featherweight
Francis Marshall Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m29s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
102s
Erik Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
55.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
50% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 1, 2014
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
Lightweight
Jamie Varner
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
37.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
75s
Abel Trujillo Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m32s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
22.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.5s
49% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 6, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson
Lightweight
Christos Giagos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
57s
Chris Wade Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.7
Strike accuracy
56.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
129.3s
49% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 8, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux
Bantamweight
Sirwan Kakai
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
48.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
38s
Frankie Saenz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.7
Strike accuracy
43.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
53.7s
49% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 19, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw
Light Heavyweight
Glover Teixeira Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
106s
Karl Roberson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
80%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
41s
48% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 27, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping
Middleweight
Chris Dempsey
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
199s
Scott Askham Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m45s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
77.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42s
48% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 28, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2
Featherweight
Austin Arnett
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
33.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Hakeem Dawodu Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
44.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
15.3s
48% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 20, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne
Middleweight
Scott Askham Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m52s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
68.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
Antonio Dos Santos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
52.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
77s
47% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 2, 2013
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
Heavyweight
Mark Hunt Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
57.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
79s
Stefan Struve
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
35.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
41s
47% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 18, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy
Lightweight
Tom Nolan Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33
Strike accuracy
51.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Victor Martinez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
69.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
48s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Kody Steele Noah Gugnon UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 15 5 13.2
Strike accuracy 28.6% 45.5% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.5 0 0.4
Takedown accuracy 40% 0% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.3 1 0.2
Control time 27.5s 40s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0 0 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.25 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 83.3% 84.6% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 100.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 6 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 6 13 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 80.0% 20.0% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 16.7% 0.0% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 3.3% 80.0% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 31.5 6 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0 0.4
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 80.0% 90.9% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 60.0% 54.5% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 20.0% 36.4% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 50.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 98.3% 100.0% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 1.7% 0.0% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.0% 0.0% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 9:28 1:21 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,500.1 1516 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.037 0.096 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak —
Market IntelClick here to expandHow the betting market prices this fight compared to our model's number.

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Kody Steele 61.4% 1.65 60.6% +1.4%
Noah Gugnon 38.6% 2.30 43.5% -11.3%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 9% of bankroll on Kody Steele at 1.67 (BetMGM) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Kody Steele Noah Gugnon
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -185 1.54 +116 2.16
DraftKings -154 1.65 +130 2.30
FanDuel -172 1.58 +134 2.34
BetMGM -164 1.61 +140 2.40
Bovada -154 1.65 +133 2.33
BetOnline -159 1.63 +135 2.35

Odds captured Oct 21, 2026, 6:02 AM

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