FightChoice Intelligence Report

Gable Steveson
vs
Sean Sharaf

Gable Steveson vs Sean Sharaf

https://fightchoice.app/events/gable-steveson-vs-sean-sharaf-prediction-2026-09-19

Heavyweight

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Sep 19, 2026

In This Report

Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 10, 2026, 19:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Gable Steveson Sean Sharaf
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 90.4% 9.6%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 76.4% 23.6%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 74.0% 26.0%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 57.8% 42.2%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 83.8% 16.2%
Ensemble 80.0% 20.0%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Gable Steveson's advantages in sig strikes absorbed and win rate are key drivers for the ensemble prediction. Model ζ strongly favors Gable Steveson due to his superior sig strikes absorbed, age, win rate, and win streak. The ensemble ultimately favors Gable Steveson, despite some models like Model λ leaning towards Sean Sharaf.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Gable Steveson, citing his win rate and age advantage over Sean Sharaf.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Gable Steveson, highlighting his superior sig strikes absorbed and height over Sean Sharaf.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Gable Steveson
80.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

39% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Gable Steveson Sean Sharaf
Career Record 4-1 5-2
Height — 6' 3"
Weight 249 lbs. 252 lbs.
Reach — 77"
Stance — Orthodox
Age 26 33

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

3 historical bouts

Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Gable Steveson Sean Sharaf
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 20, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway
Welterweight
Marcio Alexandre Junior
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
35s
Tim Means Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
63.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45.7s
59% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 28, 2013
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2
Welterweight
Brian Melancon
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Kelvin Gastelum Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
60.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
31s
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 14, 2011
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
Bantamweight
Joseph Benavidez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
45.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.7s
Eddie Wineland
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
33.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.7s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 30, 2016
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
Heavyweight
Anthony Hamilton Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m14s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
56.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Damian Grabowski
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 3, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
Bantamweight
Casey Kenney Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36.3
Strike accuracy
41.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Alatengheili
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
26.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 5, 2016
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
Women's Bantamweight
Valentina Shevchenko
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
41.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
26.3s
Amanda Nunes Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
48.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
92.7s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 19, 2013
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
Heavyweight
Daniel Cormier Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
77.3s
Roy Nelson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
20.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
54% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 8, 2009
UFC 101: Declaration
Welterweight
Matthew Riddle Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
70.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
242s
Dan Cramer
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.7
Strike accuracy
17.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
32s
53% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 24, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria
Lightweight
Mateusz Rebecki Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m36s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
56.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
58.5s
Loik Radzhabov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.5
Strike accuracy
35.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.5s
53% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 21, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till
Bantamweight
Brian Kelleher Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.3
Strike accuracy
53.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
91.3s
Damian Stasiak
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
38.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
10%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
35.3s
52% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 20, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
Women's Flyweight
Antonina Shevchenko
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
55.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.7s
Roxanne Modafferi Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
41.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
83.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
180s
52% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 17, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song
Middleweight
Gregory Rodrigues Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
53.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
37s
Chidi Njokuani
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
67.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
50s
52% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 10, 2012
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
Middleweight
Riki Fukuda Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.3
Strike accuracy
51.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
139.3s
Tom DeBlass
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
36.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
52% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 13, 2010
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
Light Heavyweight
Karlos Vemola Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m46s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
200s
Seth Petruzelli
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
30%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
52% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 25, 2010
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
Heavyweight
Matt Mitrione Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Joey Beltran
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
33.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
100s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Gable Steveson Sean Sharaf UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 21 24.4 13.2
Strike accuracy 71.2% 44% 43.9%
Takedowns 0 0.2 0.4
Takedown accuracy 0% 11.1% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0 0 0.2
Control time 5s 9.6s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.50 0.20 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.50 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 80.0% 50.0% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 50.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 5 4 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 59.5% 75.4% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 28.6% 18.0% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 11.9% 6.6% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 8 48.4 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. — 0 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 100.0% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 100.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 100.0% 100.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 69.0% 91.0% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 28.6% 0.8% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 2.4% 8.2% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 1:22 5:25 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,497.1 1,485.7 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.027 0.031 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline —
Market IntelClick here to expandHow the betting market prices this fight compared to our model's number.

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Gable Steveson 80.0% 1.07 93.5% -14.4%
Sean Sharaf 20.0% 9.50 10.5% +90.0%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Gable Steveson Sean Sharaf
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -10000 1.01 +900 10.00
DraftKings -1429 1.07 +850 9.50
FanDuel -1667 1.06 +980 10.80
BetMGM -2000 1.05 +950 10.50
Bovada -1429 1.07 +850 9.50
BetOnline -1667 1.06 +800 9.00

Odds captured Sep 20, 2026, 12:03 AM

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