FightChoice Intelligence Report
Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain
https://fightchoice.app/events/marlon-vera-vs-charles-jourdain-prediction-2026-09-19
Bantamweight
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Sep 19, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 10, 2026, 19:04 UTC
Model Breakdown
Marlon Vera
Charles Jourdain
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight
44.1%
55.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight
51.2%
48.8%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight
34.7%
65.3%
Statistical Model β 21% weight
24.3%
75.7%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight
37.2%
62.8%
Ensemble
32.5%
67.5%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
Charles Jourdain is favored by the ensemble prediction. Key factors driving this prediction include Marlon Vera's age and sig strikes absorbed, as well as Jourdain's higher sig strike accuracy and win streak. While most individual models favor Jourdain, Model ε shows a split due to stance considerations.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Charles Jourdain, citing Marlon Vera's past prime, age, sig strikes absorbed, and age, while noting Vera absorbs more takedowns.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Charles Jourdain, noting both fighters are switch-stance, but Jourdain's orthodox stance and Vera's sig strikes absorbed are key.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Charles Jourdain
67.5%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
82%
68%
62%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
62%
Chance of Decision
The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.
Path To Victory
| Fighter | By decision *Based on 284 similar fights | By KO/TKO *Based on 284 similar fights | By submission *Based on 284 similar fights | Win Confidence *Based on our prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera | 18.3% | 9.5% | 4.7% | 32.5% |
| Charles Jourdain | 38.0% | 19.7% | 9.7% | 67.5% |
| 284 historical bouts | 56.3% | 29.2% | 14.4% | 100.0% |
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Marlon Vera | Charles Jourdain |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 16-11 | 9-8-1 |
| Height | 5' 8" | 5' 9" |
| Weight | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach | 70" | 69" |
| Stance | Switch | Switch |
| Age | 33 | 30 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
284 historical bouts
Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 284 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.
56%
Reached the judges
44%
Ended early
29%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
6:22
Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came
Rnd 1
56
Rnd 2
37
Rnd 3
28
Rnd 4
1
Rnd 5
2
This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Marlon Vera | Charles Jourdain |
|---|---|---|
|
77%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
|
Fight Performance
|
Denise Gomes
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
77%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare
|
Fight Performance
|
James Krause
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
76%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
|
Fight Performance
|
Brando Pericic
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
74%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
|
Fight Performance
|
Joel Alvarez
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
73%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza
|
Viviane Araujo
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
73%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2
|
Marina Rodriguez
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
73%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
|
Fight Performance
|
Kaan Ofli
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
73%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen
|
Fight Performance
|
Matt Brown
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
|
Fight Performance
|
Daniel Marcos
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik
|
Fight Performance
|
Darren Stewart
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
|
Chad Mendes
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
72%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders
|
Sergio Moraes
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
|
Bruna Brasil
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd
|
Jonathan Martinez
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
|
Elise Reed
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Marlon Vera | Charles Jourdain | UFC AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | |||
| Strikes | 19.9 | 25.2 | 13.2 |
| Strike accuracy | 47.9% | 50.3% | 43.9% |
| Takedowns | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Takedown accuracy | 45.2% | 20.8% | 33.0% |
| Sub attempts | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Control time | 25.3s | 30.3s | 48.9s |
| Knockdowns | 0.21 | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | |||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 59.3% | 52.9% | 45.8% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 20.0% | 60.0% | 37.6% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 1 | -1 | -2 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 27 | 17 | — |
| head strike share | 54.1% | 52.8% | — |
| body strike share | 22.0% | 30.1% | — |
| leg strike share | 24.0% | 17.2% | — |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 25.29 | 19.79 | 15.2 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.33 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 1.12 | 1.11 | 0.52 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.68 | 0.66 | 0.56 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.43 | 0 | 0.42 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | No | No | — |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No | — |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | Yes | Yes | — |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 75.0% | 66.7% | 46.5% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 50.0% | 22.2% | 27.9% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 25.0% | 44.4% | 18.7% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 0.0% | 37.5% | 52.3% |
| distance strike share | 78.6% | 73.8% | — |
| clinch strike share | 10.8% | 19.9% | — |
| ground strike share | 10.6% | 6.3% | — |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 13:33 | 11:21 | — |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,569.1 | 1,530.9 | 1500 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.483 | 0.187 | 0.069 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Peak | — |
Market Intel
Betting Edge
| Fighter | Win confidence | DraftKings odds | Break-even | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera | 32.5% | 2.64 | 37.9% | -14.1% |
| Charles Jourdain | 67.5% | 1.51 | 66.2% | +1.8% |
Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.
Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.
Recommended stake
2%
of bankroll
on Charles Jourdain at 1.42 (BetOnline)
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Marlon Vera | Charles Jourdain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| Proline | +155 | 2.55 | -250 | 1.40 |
| DraftKings | +164 | 2.64 | -196 | 1.51 |
| FanDuel | +176 | 2.76 | -208 | 1.48 |
| BetMGM | +170 | 2.70 | -208 | 1.48 |
| Bovada | +163 | 2.63 | -189 | 1.53 |
| BetOnline | +161 | 2.61 | -189 | 1.53 |
Odds captured Sep 20, 2026, 12:03 AM
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Marlon Vera
Charles Jourdain
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