FightChoice Intelligence Report

Tai Tuivasa
vs
Robelis Despaigne

Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne

https://fightchoice.app/events/tai-tuivasa-vs-robelis-despaigne-prediction-2026-09-19

Heavyweight

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Sep 19, 2026

In This Report

Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 10, 2026, 19:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Tai Tuivasa Robelis Despaigne
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 69.8% 30.2%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 59.0% 41.0%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 45.4% 54.6%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 30.2% 69.8%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 35.9% 64.1%
Ensemble 47.7% 52.3%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Robelis Despaigne's significant reach advantage and superior striking absorption are the strongest drivers favoring him. The ENSEMBLE prediction favors Robelis Despaigne, despite a slight split among individual models.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Robelis Despaigne due to his advantage in significant strikes absorbed, reach, and win rate against Tai Tuivasa.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Robelis Despaigne, highlighting his reach advantage and Tai Tuivasa's orthodox stance as key factors.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Robelis Despaigne
52.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
1st Round at 1m15s (1m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

39% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 163 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 163 similar fights By submission *Based on 163 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Tai Tuivasa 24.0% 16.7% 7.0% 47.7%
Robelis Despaigne 26.3% 18.3% 7.7% 52.3%
163 historical bouts 50.3% 35.0% 14.7% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Tai Tuivasa Robelis Despaigne
UFC Record 8-11 2-2
Height 6' 2" 6' 7"
Weight 264 lbs. 265 lbs.
Reach 75" 84"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 33 38

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

163 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 163 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

50% Reached the judges
50% Ended early
35% KO/TKO 15% Submission 6:25 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Tai Tuivasa Robelis Despaigne
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 27, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Bantamweight
Josias Musasa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.3
Strike accuracy
48.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
17.3s
Colby Thicknesse Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.7
Strike accuracy
55.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
155s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 30, 2016
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
Middleweight
Marvin Vettori
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
41.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
59.7s
Antonio Carlos Junior Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
37.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
30.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
111s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 22, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
Featherweight
Artem Lobov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.6
Strike accuracy
44.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.4
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21.6s
Cub Swanson Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
41.8
Strike accuracy
70.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.4
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.6s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 21, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
Featherweight
Chase Hooper Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
64.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
141.3s
Felipe Colares
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
91.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
84.7s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 5, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font
Light Heavyweight
Aleksa Camur
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.3s
Tanner Boser Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40
Strike accuracy
55.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
109s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 19, 2015
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2
Welterweight
Hayder Hassan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
53.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Vicente Luque Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m13s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
22s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 16, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
Featherweight
Ludovit Klein
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
49.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.7s
Nate Landwehr Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.7
Strike accuracy
54.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
75.3s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 19, 2007
UFC Fight Night: Thomas vs Florian
Middleweight
Chris Leben Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m56s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
52.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
29.7s
Terry Martin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
43.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
139.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 17, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson
Lightweight
Islam Makhachev Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
63.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
178.3s
Chris Wade
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.7
Strike accuracy
29.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
81.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 3, 2007
UFC 68: The Uprising
Lightweight
Gleison Tibau Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
43.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
83.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
247.7s
Jason Dent
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
28.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 22, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
Featherweight
William Gomis Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
34.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.7s
Francis Marshall
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
11.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
86.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 6, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres
Featherweight
Alex Caceres
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.4
Strike accuracy
31.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19.6s
Yair Rodriguez Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
35.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.4s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 28, 2013
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
Middleweight
Chris Leben
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Uriah Hall Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
43.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 18, 2006
UFC 65: Bad Intentions
Welterweight
Matt Hughes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
25.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Georges St-Pierre Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.5
Strike accuracy
48.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 16, 2013
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
Welterweight
Robbie Lawler Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
43.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47.3s
Rory MacDonald
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
34.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
61.7s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Tai Tuivasa Robelis Despaigne UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 13.7 9.4 13.2
Strike accuracy 48.4% 53.4% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.0 0.2 0.4
Takedown accuracy 11.1% 100% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0 0 0.2
Control time 39.6s 32.9s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.21 0.10 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.16 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 42.1% 66.7% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 0.0% 60.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -8 2 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 19 6 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 58.8% 74.5% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 18.2% 5.3% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 23.0% 20.2% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 18.45 10.8 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.55 0.7 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.34 0.94 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.27 1.21 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0 5.000 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 87.5% 75.0% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 87.5% 75.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 54.5% 0.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 68.8% 74.5% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 24.7% 17.0% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.5% 8.5% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 8:27 11:20 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,458.5 1,498.0 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.084 0.047 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline —
Market IntelClick here to expandHow the betting market prices this fight compared to our model's number.

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Tai Tuivasa 47.7% 4.30 23.3% +105.2%
Robelis Despaigne 52.3% 1.24 80.6% -35.2%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Tai Tuivasa Robelis Despaigne
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +310 4.10 -625 1.16
DraftKings +330 4.30 -417 1.24
FanDuel +330 4.30 -417 1.24
BetMGM +340 4.40 -455 1.22
Bovada +330 4.30 -417 1.24
BetOnline +325 4.25 -417 1.24

Odds captured Sep 20, 2026, 12:03 AM

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