FightChoice Intelligence Report
Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy Diaz
https://fightchoice.app/events/ryan-gandra-vs-ozzy-diaz-prediction-2026-09-19
Middleweight
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Sep 19, 2026
In This Report
Prediction Intel
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Sep 10, 2026, 19:03 UTC
Model Breakdown
Ryan Gandra
Ozzy Diaz
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight
58.9%
41.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight
66.4%
33.6%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight
63.9%
36.1%
Statistical Model β 21% weight
75.7%
24.3%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight
66.8%
33.2%
Ensemble
74.2%
25.8%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)
The ensemble's final prediction favors Ryan Gandra, driven by strong indicators like Ozzy Diaz's past prime status and higher sig strikes absorbed across multiple models. While most individual models also favored Ryan Gandra, the ensemble's calibration and weighting solidified this outcome.
- Statistical Model β: Model β favors Ryan Gandra, citing his win rate and lower sig strikes absorbed, despite Ozzy Diaz's higher Elo rating.
- Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Ryan Gandra, based on Ozzy Diaz's higher ground strike share and head strike share, and Ryan Gandra absorbing fewer sig strikes.
AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.
Predicted Winner
Ryan Gandra
74.2%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
*New fighters, prediction made with limited information
Predicted Duration
1st Round at 1m15s (1m15s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
58%
40%
31%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
31%
Chance of Decision
The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.
Fighter Intel
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Ryan Gandra | Ozzy Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Career Record | 11-1 | 10-5 |
| Height | 6' 1" | 6' 4" |
| Weight | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach | 74" | 79" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 31 | 35 |
Records are official career records, all promotions included.
Matchup Intel
How Similar Fights Ended
11 historical bouts
Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Ryan Gandra | Ozzy Diaz |
|---|---|---|
|
62%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
|
Fight Performance
|
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
59%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson
|
Fight Performance
|
Damien Brown
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
58%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
|
Uros Medic
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
58%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac
|
Fight Performance
|
Serghei Spivac
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
58%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
|
Fight Performance
|
Chris Lytle
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
57%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar
|
Ed Herman
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
57%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Joey Beltran
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
57%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa
|
Justin Willis
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
56%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos
|
Marcus McGhee
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
56%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov
|
Brunno Ferreira
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
55%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira
|
Fight Performance
|
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
55%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal
|
Fight Performance
|
Michel Pereira
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
55%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
|
Fight Performance
|
Misha Cirkunov
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
54%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Chris Curtis
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
53%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson
|
Fight Performance
|
Jimi Manuwa
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Statistics Intel
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Ryan Gandra | Ozzy Diaz | UFC AVG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | |||
| Strikes | 13.3 | 21.9 | 13.2 |
| Strike accuracy | 48.2% | 51.5% | 43.9% |
| Takedowns | 0 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Takedown accuracy | 0% | 0% | 33.0% |
| Sub attempts | 0 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Control time | 2.7s | 9s | 48.9s |
| Knockdowns | 1 | 0 | 0.08 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0 | 0.43 | 0.13 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | |||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 80.0% | 70.0% | 45.8% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 80.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 4 | -2 | -2 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 5 | 10 | — |
| head strike share | 87.5% | 84.3% | — |
| body strike share | 7.5% | 10.5% | — |
| leg strike share | 5.0% | 5.2% | — |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 2.67 | 26.71 | 15.2 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0 | 0.14 | 0.4 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0 | 1.78 | 0.52 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0 | 0.81 | 0.56 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.42 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes | — |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No | — |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No | — |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 100.0% | 85.7% | 46.5% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 100.0% | 57.1% | 27.9% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | 28.6% | 18.7% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 100.0% | 100.0% | 52.3% |
| distance strike share | 70.0% | 96.7% | — |
| clinch strike share | 0.0% | 3.3% | — |
| ground strike share | 30.0% | 0.0% | — |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 1:20 | 6:25 | — |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,543.9 | 1,473.9 | 1500 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.040 | 0.058 | 0.069 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Decline | — |
Market Intel
Betting Edge
| Fighter | Win confidence | DraftKings odds | Break-even | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Gandra | 74.2% | 1.19 | 84.0% | -11.7% |
| Ozzy Diaz | 25.8% | 4.90 | 20.4% | +26.3% |
Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.
Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.
Recommended stake
No bet recommended at the price we recorded.
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Ryan Gandra | Ozzy Diaz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| Proline | -714 | 1.14 | +340 | 4.40 |
| DraftKings | -526 | 1.19 | +390 | 4.90 |
| FanDuel | -556 | 1.18 | +420 | 5.20 |
| BetMGM | -556 | 1.18 | +400 | 5.00 |
| Bovada | -526 | 1.19 | +395 | 4.95 |
| BetOnline | -500 | 1.20 | +387 | 4.87 |
Odds captured Sep 19, 2026, 6:02 PM
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Ryan Gandra
Ozzy Diaz
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