FightChoice Intelligence Report
Ion Cutelaba vs Navajo Stirling
https://fightchoice.app/events/ion-cutelaba-vs-navajo-stirling-prediction-2026-06-20
Light Heavyweight
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 · Jun 20, 2026
Stats Model Prediction
Model Breakdown
Ion Cutelaba
Navajo Stirling
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight
42.1%
57.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight
46.1%
53.9%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight
42.1%
57.9%
Statistical Model β 21% weight
37.1%
62.9%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight
37.1%
62.9%
Ensemble
20.0%
80.0%
Predicted Winner
Navajo Stirling
80.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 3m27s (8m27s total)
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Ion Cutelaba | Navajo Stirling |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 9-11-1 | 5-0 |
| Height | 6' 1" | 6' 4" |
| Weight | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach | 75" | 79" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Age | 32 | 28 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Ion Cutelaba | Navajo Stirling |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 17.4 | 29.5 |
| Strike accuracy | 43.6% | 52.8% |
| Takedowns | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Takedown accuracy | 51.1% | 40% |
| Sub attempts | 0.1 | 0 |
| Control time | 58.5s | 51.7s |
| Knockdowns | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.08 | 0 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 45.0% | 100.0% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 60.0% | 100.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -1 | 10 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 20 | 10 |
| head strike share | 67.1% | 51.8% |
| body strike share | 19.1% | 33.9% |
| leg strike share | 13.8% | 14.3% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 13.27 | 12.15 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.24 | 0.77 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.2 | 0.97 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.35 | 0.8 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.24 | 5.000 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | No | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | Yes | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 66.7% | 60.0% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 44.4% | 60.0% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 72.7% | 0.0% |
| distance strike share | 59.7% | 77.6% |
| clinch strike share | 20.9% | 6.2% |
| ground strike share | 19.4% | 16.1% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 7:39 | 12:30 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,492.8 | 1,572.7 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.085 | 0.111 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Peak |
Betting Edge
Recommended stake
15%
of bankroll
on Navajo Stirling at 1.31 (research)
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Ion Cutelaba
Navajo Stirling
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