FightChoice Intelligence Report
Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos
https://fightchoice.app/events/karol-rosa-vs-luana-santos-prediction-2026-06-20
Women's Bantamweight
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2 · Jun 20, 2026
Stats Model Prediction
Model Breakdown
Karol Rosa
Luana Santos
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight
52.2%
47.8%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight
52.6%
47.4%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight
11.7%
88.3%
Statistical Model β 21% weight
38.2%
61.8%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight
47.2%
52.8%
Ensemble
20.0%
80.0%
Predicted Winner
Luana Santos
80.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 3m22s (13m22s total)
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Karol Rosa | Luana Santos |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 8-5 | 6-1 |
| Height | 5' 5" | 5' 6" |
| Weight | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach | 67" | 67" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Age | 31 | 26 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Karol Rosa | Luana Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 27.3 | 12.2 |
| Strike accuracy | 55.6% | 53.6% |
| Takedowns | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Takedown accuracy | 48.3% | 37.9% |
| Sub attempts | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Control time | 80.5s | 159.6s |
| Knockdowns | 0.05 | 0 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.03 | 0 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 61.5% | 87.5% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 40.0% | 80.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | -1 | 3 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 13 | 16 |
| head strike share | 58.4% | 59.0% |
| body strike share | 12.8% | 29.2% |
| leg strike share | 28.8% | 11.8% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 21.41 | 11.81 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.26 | 0.06 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 1.3 | 0.14 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 1.04 | 0.64 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 2 | 0.75 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | Yes | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | No | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 0.0% | 35.7% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| distance strike share | 80.0% | 89.2% |
| clinch strike share | 10.5% | 8.7% |
| ground strike share | 9.5% | 2.1% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 15:00 | 11:01 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,533.9 | 1,574.4 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.085 | 0.195 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Decline | Peak |
Betting Edge
Recommended stake
29%
of bankroll
on Luana Santos at 1.95 (research)
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Karol Rosa
Luana Santos
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