FightChoice Intelligence Report

Billy Elekana
vs
Lucas Fernando

Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando

https://fightchoice.app/events/billy-elekana-vs-lucas-fernando-prediction-2026-11-07

Light Heavyweight

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Nov 7, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

As Billy Elekana prepares to face Lucas Fernando at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady, the stakes are high in this light heavyweight showdown. Both fighters stand at an impressive 6'3", but the fight dynamics shift when you consider the weight class: Elekana tips the scales at 205 lbs, while Fernando comes in lighter at 185 lbs. This could be a critical factor, as Fernando boasts a longer reach at 80 inches compared to Elekana's 77 inches, giving him an edge in striking range. The contrasting styles are palpable here, with Elekana, a southpaw, looking to utilize his grappling strength—averaging 0.3 takedowns per round and a control time of 42.6 seconds—while Fernando has been more of a striking powerhouse with 23 significant strikes landed per round, and a staggering 53.3% of his wins coming by knockout.

In their respective careers, Fernando has demonstrated a more potent finish rate at 73.3%, compared to Elekana's 50%. This has shades of when Daniel Rodriguez faced Mike Perry back in 2021—Rodriguez was the more prolific striker and ultimately took the win, showcasing that striking volume can often overshadow grappling prowess in the octagon. With Fernando riding a five-fight win streak and a recent win rate of 100%, he seems to be the fighter in form, setting the stage for a thrilling encounter. Can Elekana withstand the striking onslaught and impose his grappling game, or will Fernando's power and precision lead him to another victory?

#BillyElekana #LucasFernando #UFCFightNight #LightHeavyweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 17, 2026, 00:05 UTC

Model Breakdown
Billy Elekana Lucas Fernando
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 51.0% 49.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 65.5% 34.5%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 38.0% 62.0%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 30.8% 69.2%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 48.3% 51.7%
Ensemble 45.3% 54.7%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Lucas Fernando's win streak and advantage in knockdowns, along with absorbing fewer significant strikes, are the strongest drivers for the ensemble's prediction. The ensemble favors Lucas Fernando, despite a split among individual models, due to calibrated weighting.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Lucas Fernando, citing his advantage in significant strikes absorbed and overall win rate, despite Billy Elekana being past his prime.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Lucas Fernando, based on his distance strike share, even though Billy Elekana's southpaw stance and orthodox stance are considered.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Lucas Fernando
54.7%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

37% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 286 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 286 similar fights By submission *Based on 286 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Billy Elekana 24.4% 14.1% 6.8% 45.3%
Lucas Fernando 29.5% 17.0% 8.2% 54.7%
286 historical bouts 53.8% 31.1% 15.0% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Billy Elekana Lucas Fernando
Career Record 10-2 14-3
Height 6' 3" 6' 3"
Weight 205 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 77" 80"
Stance Southpaw —
Age 31 29

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

286 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 286 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

54% Reached the judges
46% Ended early
31% KO/TKO 15% Submission 5:50 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Billy Elekana Lucas Fernando
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 10, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland
Welterweight
Mike Perry
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.3
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
56.3s
Daniel Rodriguez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
43
Strike accuracy
54.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 21, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
Women's Strawweight
Carla Esparza Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
55%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
36.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
144s
Alexa Grasso
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
43.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.3s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 10, 2022
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
catch/open/unknown
Daniel Rodriguez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.3
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Li Jingliang
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
44.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2018
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
Lightweight
Michael Chiesa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
46.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
79.5s
Anthony Pettis Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m52s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4.5
Strike accuracy
40.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
31.5s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 9, 2019
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
Bantamweight
Rani Yahya
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
25.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Ricky Simon Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
39.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
76.3s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 2, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve
Lightweight
Rustam Khabilov Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.3
Strike accuracy
31.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
27.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21.3s
Desmond Green
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
42.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.7s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 24, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2
Lightweight
Claudio Puelles
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.3
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
53.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
144.7s
Fares Ziam Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
64.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
90s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 19, 2008
UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2
Middleweight
Kalib Starnes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
22.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.7s
Nate Quarry Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
51.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 28, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Bantamweight
Cristian Quinonez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
62.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
70%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
142s
Kris Moutinho
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
39.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.3s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 17, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier
Women's Flyweight
Tereza Bleda Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
57.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
30%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
217s
Gabriella Fernandes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
48.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.3s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 24, 2021
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
Middleweight
Chris Weidman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Uriah Hall Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
—
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 23, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis
Women's Strawweight
Randa Markos Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m24s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
173s
Angela Hill
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
28.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 19, 2025
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Welterweight
Daniel Rodriguez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.7
Strike accuracy
51.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
71.3s
Kevin Holland
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.3
Strike accuracy
47.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42.3s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 3, 2017
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
Featherweight
Jose Aldo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
48.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Max Holloway Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m13s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34.7
Strike accuracy
50.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
41.3s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 30, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Heavyweight
Tallison Teixeira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Sergei Pavlovich Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
77.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Billy Elekana Lucas Fernando UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 12 23 13.2
Strike accuracy 56.5% 60% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.3 0 0.4
Takedown accuracy 22.2% 0% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.3 0 0.2
Control time 42.6s 3s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.13 0.67 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0.13 0 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 66.7% 88.2% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 100.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 3 5 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 6 17 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 69.8% 53.6% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 25.0% 26.1% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 5.2% 20.3% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 15.88 4.33 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0.33 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.34 — 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.2 — 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0 — 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No No —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 73.3% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 53.3% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 20.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 50.0% 0.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 81.2% 95.7% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 1.0% 1.4% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 17.7% 2.9% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 8:51 11:10 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,531.3 1,515.2 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.028 0.074 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak —

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