FightChoice Intelligence Report

Karine Silva
vs
Gabriella Fernandes

Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes

https://fightchoice.app/events/karine-silva-vs-gabriella-fernandes-prediction-2026-11-07

Women's Flyweight

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Nov 7, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

In the Women's Flyweight clash at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady, Karine Silva steps into the octagon with a career record of 19-7, facing off against Gabriella Fernandes, who holds an 11-4 record. Both fighters weigh in at 125 lbs, but Silva boasts a slight reach advantage at 67 inches, compared to Fernandes' 66 inches. At 32 years old, Silva is in the twilight of her career, while 33-year-old Fernandes is peaking, making this matchup a fascinating study in experience versus potential.

As they engage, fans can expect a striking battle where Fernandes has a notable edge in volume, landing an impressive 16.9 significant strikes per round compared to Silva's 10.9. However, Silva counters with a solid grappling game, averaging 0.7 takedowns per round and boasting a takedown accuracy of 54.5%. This fight has echoes of Gabriel Gonzaga’s stunning upset over Mirko Filipovic at UFC 70, where the less-favored fighter turned the tide through grappling prowess. With Silva's finish rate standing at 89.5%, we could witness a dramatic finish, especially given the stakes for both fighters—it's a pivotal moment that could define their careers.

#KarineSilva #GabriellaFernandes #UFCFightNight #WomensFlyweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 17, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Karine Silva Gabriella Fernandes
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 51.7% 48.3%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 54.2% 45.8%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 53.0% 47.0%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 57.8% 42.2%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 65.7% 34.3%
Ensemble 59.6% 40.4%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

Karine Silva's ability to absorb fewer significant strikes than Gabriella Fernandes is a key driver across multiple models. Additionally, Karine Silva's higher win rate and Gabriella Fernandes's higher Elo rating also contribute to the prediction. The ENSEMBLE favors Karine Silva (60%), with calibration and weighting producing this outcome despite some individual models highlighting Gabriella Fernandes's advantages.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Karine Silva, citing her lower significant strikes absorbed and higher win rate, despite Gabriella Fernandes's higher Elo rating.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Karine Silva, noting her lower significant strikes absorbed and advantage as an orthodox fighter, outweighing Gabriella Fernandes's southpaw stance.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Karine Silva
59.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

62% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

Path To Victory
Fighter By decision *Based on 132 similar fights By KO/TKO *Based on 132 similar fights By submission *Based on 132 similar fights Win Confidence *Based on our prediction
Karine Silva 30.3% 19.0% 10.4% 59.6%
Gabriella Fernandes 20.5% 12.8% 7.0% 40.4%
132 historical bouts 50.8% 31.8% 17.4% 100.0%
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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Karine Silva Gabriella Fernandes
Career Record 19-7 11-4
Height 5' 5" 5' 6"
Weight 125 lbs. 125 lbs.
Reach 67" 66"
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Age 32 33

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

132 historical bouts

Every past fight is placed by the SHAPE of its mismatch — how far apart the two fighters were on each of 37 career measures, setting aside which one was ahead. Fights that sit close together form a profile. Below is how the 132 bouts in this bout's profile actually ended.

51% Reached the judges
49% Ended early
32% KO/TKO 17% Submission 6:23 Median finish, round 2
When those finishes came

This is a base rate over similar past matchups, not a prediction about these two fighters. It is drawn from what happened historically, and the profile is blind to which corner is which — so it can say how fights like this one tend to go, and nothing at all about who wins.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Karine Silva Gabriella Fernandes
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 5, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Lightweight
Fares Ziam
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
53.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Axel Sola Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m40s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
69.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 21, 2007
UFC 70: Nations Collide
Heavyweight
Gabriel Gonzaga Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m51s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
41.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
185s
Mirko Filipovic
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 19, 2013
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
Welterweight
Nate Marquardt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Hector Lombard Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m48s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 23, 2015
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
Flyweight
John Moraga
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
56%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.3s
Joseph Benavidez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
57.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
183s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 3, 2011
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
Welterweight
Martin Kampmann
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.7
Strike accuracy
38.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Diego Sanchez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
25.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
6.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
32.3s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 26, 2013
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
Featherweight
Ricardo Lamas Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m32s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
98s
Erik Koch
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
31.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 7, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
Women's Flyweight
Montana De La Rosa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
32.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
JJ Aldrich Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
48.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.3s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 13, 2025
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva
Middleweight
Dustin Stoltzfus
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.3
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
40s
Kelvin Gastelum Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
48.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.7s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 23, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori
Featherweight
SeungWoo Choi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.5
Strike accuracy
33.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.5s
Alex Caceres Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m31s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
71.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
24.5s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 25, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Women's Strawweight
Talita Alencar Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
30.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
49s
Julia Polastri
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
70.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.3s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 11, 2010
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
Lightweight
Charles Oliveira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Jim Miller Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
16.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
92s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 20, 2018
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
Bantamweight
Rob Font Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m24s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20.5
Strike accuracy
31.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
31.5s
Thomas Almeida
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
26.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 2, 2016
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
Welterweight
Carlos Condit
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35.2
Strike accuracy
35.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Robbie Lawler Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.4
Strike accuracy
52%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.2s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 28, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Bantamweight
Cristian Quinonez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
62.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2.3
Takedown accuracy
70%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
142s
Kris Moutinho
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
39.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10.3s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 9, 2019
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
Bantamweight
Rani Yahya
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
25.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Ricky Simon Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
39.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
76.3s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Karine Silva Gabriella Fernandes UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 10.9 16.9 13.2
Strike accuracy 39.7% 46.6% 43.9%
Takedowns 0.7 0.1 0.4
Takedown accuracy 54.5% 18.2% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0.4 0.1 0.2
Control time 66.2s 13.5s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.06 0.07 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.07 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 79.2% 73.3% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 60.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 -1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 24 15 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 42.1% 64.8% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 22.8% 21.3% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 35.0% 13.8% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 12.72 25.47 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.67 0.6 0.4
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.5 0.77 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.88 0.95 0.56
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.6 0.000 0.42
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 89.5% 54.5% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 42.1% 27.3% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 47.4% 27.3% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 40.0% 25.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 76.1% 89.3% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 15.2% 10.7% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 8.6% 0.0% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 10:50 12:00 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,530.2 1,501.5 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.176 0.125 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak —

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