FightChoice Intelligence Report

Keiichiro Nakamura
vs
Ollie Schmid

Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid

https://fightchoice.app/events/keiichiro-nakamura-vs-ollie-schmid-prediction-2026-11-07

Featherweight

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady · Nov 7, 2026

In This Report

The Fight StoryClick here to expandThe story behind the stats.

In the featherweight clash between Keiichiro Nakamura and Ollie Schmid at UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady, we’re set to witness a classic stylistic battle. With a career record of 6-1, Nakamura stands out not just for his impressive win rate of 100%, but also for his striking prowess, averaging 15 significant strikes per round at an accuracy of 37.8%. Schmid, with a record of 4-3, will need to find a way to counter Nakamura's southpaw stance and reach advantage of 70 inches, all while hoping to turn the tide against a fighter whose striking game has already shown effectiveness, as evidenced by Nakamura’s finishes in all his victories.

This matchup echoes historical contests like Joe Lauzon versus Gabe Ruediger at UFC 118, where Lauzon's skill and finishing ability overwhelmed his opponent. Similarly, Nakamura's 100% finish rate puts him in a position reminiscent of Vitor Petrino's decisive victory over Marcin Prachnio at UFC 290 earlier this year. For Schmid, who has faced struggles in his recent bouts, the pressure is on to pull off an upset against a fighter who has not only maintained a solid win streak but has also shown the ability to capitalize on openings with devastating results.

#KeiichiroNakamura #OllieSchmid #UFCFightNight #Featherweight #UFC #MMA

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Prediction IntelClick here to expandOur call — and the case for it.

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Oct 17, 2026, 00:04 UTC

Model Breakdown
Keiichiro Nakamura Ollie Schmid
Deep Learning Model α 26% weight 58.0% 42.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 25% weight 61.5% 38.5%
Statistical Model δ 13% weight 83.9% 16.1%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 82.5% 17.5%
Statistical Model ε 15% weight 72.1% 27.9%
Ensemble 80.0% 20.0%
AI Reasoning (why the models picked this)

The ensemble prediction favors Keiichiro Nakamura, driven by his significant reach advantage over Ollie Schmid and Ollie Schmid's tendency to absorb knockdowns. Despite some models noting Ollie Schmid's height and age advantages, the combined prediction leans towards Nakamura.

  • Statistical Model β: Model β favors Keiichiro Nakamura, citing his reach advantage over Ollie Schmid and noting Nakamura is past his prime.
  • Statistical Model ε: Model ε favors Keiichiro Nakamura, pointing to his reach advantage and Ollie Schmid's leg strike share.

AI-generated from the model outputs above — wording may occasionally be imprecise.

Predicted Winner
Keiichiro Nakamura
80.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

57% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

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Fighter IntelClick here to expandEach fighter's skill profile and career trajectory, visualized side by side.

Tale of the Tape

Stat Keiichiro Nakamura Ollie Schmid
Career Record 6-1 4-3
Height 5' 10" —
Weight 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 70" —
Stance Southpaw —
Age 27 25

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

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Matchup IntelClick here to expandPast fights with a similar statistical shape, plus how fights like this one typically end.

How Similar Fights Ended

2 historical bouts

Not enough similar fights on record to quote a rate for this profile.

Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Keiichiro Nakamura Ollie Schmid
57% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 28, 2010
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2
Lightweight
Joe Lauzon Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m01s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
67.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
93s
Gabe Ruediger
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
12.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
55% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 15, 2012
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger
Bantamweight
TJ Dillashaw Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.3
Strike accuracy
74.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
42.9%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
248s
Walel Watson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.7
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
52% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 8, 2023
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez
Light Heavyweight
Vitor Petrino Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m42s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
54.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
173s
Marcin Prachnio
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
51% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 25, 2012
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
Lightweight
Anthony Pettis Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Joe Lauzon
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
50% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 4, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac
Flyweight
Tatsuro Taira Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m20s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
229s
Jesus Aguilar
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
23s
50% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 5, 2007
UFC Fight Night: Stevenson vs Guillard
Welterweight
Forrest Petz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.3
Strike accuracy
20%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
Kuniyoshi Hironaka Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
57.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
41.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
200.7s
50% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 17, 2016
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Featherweight
Cole Miller
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
35%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
21s
Mizuto Hirota Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
85.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
196.3s
49% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 25, 2013
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
Heavyweight
Cain Velasquez Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
64.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
Antonio Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
49% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 1, 2017
The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale
Bantamweight
Brett Johns Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
11.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Joe Soto
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
—
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
47% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 10, 2011
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
Bantamweight
Walel Watson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
28.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
25s
Yves Jabouin Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
36.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34s
47% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 28, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier
Women's Bantamweight
Macy Chiasson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.7
Strike accuracy
55.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
116.3s
Lina Lansberg Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
53.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
155s
47% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 27, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2
Lightweight
Gregor Gillespie Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m46s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34
Strike accuracy
61.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
222s
Jordan Rinaldi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
43.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
46% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 17, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson
Bantamweight
Jose Quinonez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
42.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
71.4%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
92s
Joey Gomez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14.7
Strike accuracy
32.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
46% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 25, 2007
UFC 74: Respect
Middleweight
Kendall Grove
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
Patrick Cote Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m45s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
64.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
163s
45% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 9, 2024
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
Heavyweight
Curtis Blaydes Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m36s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
64%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.5s
Jailton Almeida
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0.5
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
4.5
Takedown accuracy
69.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
139.5s

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Statistics IntelClick here to expandA full head-to-head stat comparison — per-round output and career tendencies — against the UFC average.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Keiichiro Nakamura Ollie Schmid UFC AVG
Per Round Average
Strikes 15 9 13.2
Strike accuracy 37.8% 30% 43.9%
Takedowns 0 0 0.4
Takedown accuracy 0% 0% 33.0%
Sub attempts 0 0 0.2
Control time 1.3s 0s 48.9s
Knockdowns 0.33 0 0.08
Knockdowns absorbed 0 1 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 100.0% 0.0% 45.8%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 100.0% 0.0% 37.6%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 -2 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 1 2 —
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 46.7% 0.0% —
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 24.4% 33.3% —
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 28.9% 66.7% —
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 26.33 22 15.2
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.33 0 0.4
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No No —
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No —
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No —
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 0.0% 46.5%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 0.0% 27.9%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 0.0% 18.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 0.0% 100.0% 52.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 91.1% 100.0% —
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 2.2% 0.0% —
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.7% 0.0% —
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 13:48 2:47 —
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1516 1,484.7 1500
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.032 0.006 0.069
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Early Early —

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