FightChoice Intelligence Report

Darren Elkins
vs
Yadier del Valle

Darren Elkins vs Yadier del Valle

https://fightchoice.app/events/darren-elkins-vs-yadier-del-valle-prediction-2026-08-08

Featherweight

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Aug 8, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 7, 2026, 07:21 UTC

Model Breakdown
Darren Elkins Yadier del Valle
Statistical Model δ 29% weight 12.2% 87.8%
Statistical Model β 37% weight 33.4% 66.6%
Statistical Model ε 34% weight 37.8% 62.2%
Ensemble 20.0% 80.0%
Predicted Winner
Yadier del Valle
80.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Darren Elkins Yadier del Valle
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 21, 2023
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
Light Heavyweight
Glover Teixeira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
46.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.4
Takedown accuracy
11.8%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
41.2s
Jamahal Hill Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
46.4
Strike accuracy
57.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
41.2s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 12, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
Light Heavyweight
Ed Herman Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m41s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.3
Strike accuracy
54.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
83s
Mike Rodriguez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.7
Strike accuracy
71.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
65.3s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 27, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez
Welterweight
Tim Means
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
41.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
78s
Uros Medic Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m09s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
58.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
63% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 7, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping
Middleweight
Michael Bisping
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
24.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.5s
Luke Rockhold Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m57s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
48.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
8.5s
61% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 21, 2012
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
Heavyweight
Cheick Kongo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
67.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
121s
Shawn Jordan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
36.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
119s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Darren Elkins Yadier del Valle
UFC Record 19-11 2-1
Height 5' 10" 5' 9"
Weight 145 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 71" 69"
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Age 42 30

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Darren Elkins Yadier del Valle
Per Round Average
Strikes 15.7 4.6
Strike accuracy 38.4% 41.8%
Takedowns 0.9 0.2
Takedown accuracy 34% 100%
Sub attempts 0.3 0.8
Control time 101.9s 78.8s
Knockdowns 0.03 0
Knockdowns absorbed 0.08 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 63.3% 80.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 30 5
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 76.0% 34.8%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 19.7% 39.1%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 4.3% 26.1%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 15.38 4
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.33 0.8
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.08 0.38
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.69 0.3
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.47 0
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No Yes
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 36.8% 75.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 21.1% 0.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 15.8% 75.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 45.5% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 57.6% 60.9%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 20.3% 4.3%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 22.1% 34.8%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 11:41 7:12
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,567.2 1,514.4
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.130 0.064
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

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