FightChoice Intelligence Report

Diego Ferreira
vs
Billy Quarantillo

Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo

https://fightchoice.app/events/diego-ferreira-vs-billy-quarantillo-prediction-2026-08-08

Lightweight

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Aug 8, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 7, 2026, 07:21 UTC

Outdated predictions due to model or data updates

Model Breakdown
Diego Ferreira Billy Quarantillo
Statistical Model δ 29% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model β 37% weight 42.3% 57.7%
Statistical Model ε 34% weight 59.6% 40.4%
Ensemble 45.6% 54.4%
Predicted Winner
Billy Quarantillo
54.4%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)
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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Diego Ferreira Billy Quarantillo
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 8, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
Bantamweight
Raoni Barcelos Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.3
Strike accuracy
43.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
12.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Ricky Simon
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
37%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.3s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 5, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori
Heavyweight
Gian Villante
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.7
Strike accuracy
40.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Jake Collier Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
41
Strike accuracy
45.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 23, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo
Welterweight
Muslim Salikhov Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m49s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
71.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Song Kenan
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 23, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall
Light Heavyweight
Alexander Gustafsson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
Nikita Krylov Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m07s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
59.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 6, 2013
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
Middleweight
Tim Boetsch
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7.7
Strike accuracy
56.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
59.7s
Mark Munoz Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
67.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
188.7s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Diego Ferreira Billy Quarantillo
UFC Record 10-7 6-5
Height 5' 9" 5' 10"
Weight 155 lbs. 145 lbs.
Reach 74" 70"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 41 37

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Diego Ferreira Billy Quarantillo
Per Round Average
Strikes 20.4 30.8
Strike accuracy 39.8% 52.2%
Takedowns 0.2 0.5
Takedown accuracy 30% 25.5%
Sub attempts 0.2 0.3
Control time 30.6s 71s
Knockdowns 0.08 0.07
Knockdowns absorbed 0.11 0.11
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 58.8% 54.5%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 40.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -2 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 17 11
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 70.6% 69.4%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 21.8% 22.9%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 7.6% 7.6%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 15.03 25.71
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.84 0.61
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.66 0.61
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.31 0.5
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.5 0.67
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 70.0% 66.7%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 50.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 20.0% 16.7%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 57.1% 60.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 77.6% 66.4%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.4% 17.1%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 16.0% 16.5%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 9:43 11:09
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,548.6 1,512.3
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.179 0.102
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Diego Ferreira 45.6% 1.56 64.1% -28.9%
Billy Quarantillo 54.4% 2.50 40.0% +36.0%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 11% of bankroll on Billy Quarantillo at 2.45 (DraftKings) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Diego Ferreira Billy Quarantillo
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -204 1.49 +128 2.28
DraftKings -179 1.56 +150 2.50
FanDuel -175 1.57 +148 2.48
Bovada -172 1.58 +147 2.47
BetOnline -161 1.62 +140 2.40

Odds captured Aug 9, 2026, 12:02 AM

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