FightChoice Intelligence Report

Steven Asplund
vs
Guilherme Pat

Steven Asplund vs Guilherme Pat

https://fightchoice.app/events/steven-asplund-vs-guilherme-pat-prediction-2026-08-08

Heavyweight

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Aug 8, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 7, 2026, 07:21 UTC

Model Breakdown
Steven Asplund Guilherme Pat
Statistical Model δ 29% weight 76.9% 23.1%
Statistical Model β 37% weight 75.9% 24.1%
Statistical Model ε 34% weight 80.8% 19.2%
Ensemble 80.0% 20.0%
Predicted Winner
Steven Asplund
80.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)
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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Steven Asplund Guilherme Pat
45% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 3, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Lightweight
Rolando Bedoya
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
33.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
23.7s
Jai Herbert Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.3
Strike accuracy
46.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
45% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 4, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Heavyweight
Thomas Petersen Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
68.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
172s
Guilherme Pat
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5.7
Strike accuracy
54.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
43% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 5, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland
Welterweight
Phil Rowe Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
47.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.5s
Jason Witt
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
155.5s
43% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 7, 2024
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
Flyweight
Joshua Van Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
55
Strike accuracy
54.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.7s
Cody Durden
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
32.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
64.7s
43% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 21, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Till
Featherweight
Andre Fili Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
37.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
83.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
89.3s
Artem Lobov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
47.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Steven Asplund Guilherme Pat
Career Record 7-2 6-1
Height 6' 5" —
Weight 261 lbs. 265 lbs.
Reach 78" —
Stance Orthodox —
Age 28 —

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Steven Asplund Guilherme Pat
Per Round Average
Strikes 46.2 13.5
Strike accuracy 51.3% 61.8%
Takedowns 0 0
Takedown accuracy 0% 0%
Sub attempts 0 0
Control time 3s 7.3s
Knockdowns 0.20 0
Knockdowns absorbed 0 0.17
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 83.3% 50.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 50.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 12 2
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 87.4% 76.5%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 4.3% 13.6%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 8.2% 9.9%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 31.6 10.17
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0 0
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 70.0% 0.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 60.0% 0.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 10.0% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 50.0% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 97.0% 86.4%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 2.2% 13.6%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 0.9% 0.0%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 11:55 15:00
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,501.0 1,498.7
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.053 0.016
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Early

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Steven Asplund 80.0% 1.05 95.2% -16.0%
Guilherme Pat 20.0% 10.50 9.5% +110.0%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 18% of bankroll on Steven Asplund at 1.34 (DraftKings) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Steven Asplund Guilherme Pat
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -417 1.24 +225 3.25
DraftKings -2000 1.05 +950 10.50
FanDuel -323 1.31 +260 3.60
BetMGM -115 1.87 -115 1.87
Bovada -313 1.32 +225 3.25
BetOnline -313 1.32 +252 3.52

Odds captured Aug 9, 2026, 12:02 AM

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