FightChoice Intelligence Report

Diyar Nurgozhay
vs
Bruno Lopes

Diyar Nurgozhay vs Bruno Lopes

https://fightchoice.app/events/diyar-nurgozhay-vs-bruno-lopes-prediction-2026-08-08

Light Heavyweight

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Aug 8, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 7, 2026, 07:21 UTC

Outdated predictions due to model or data updates

Model Breakdown
Diyar Nurgozhay Bruno Lopes
Statistical Model δ 29% weight 38.7% 61.3%
Statistical Model β 37% weight 64.5% 35.5%
Statistical Model ε 34% weight 71.0% 29.0%
Ensemble 47.5% 52.5%
Predicted Winner
Bruno Lopes
52.5%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

*New fighters, prediction made with limited information

Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 1m15s (6m15s total)
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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Diyar Nurgozhay Bruno Lopes
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 14, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi
Lightweight
James Krause Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11.7
Strike accuracy
52.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
27.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
202.3s
Alex White
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
44.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 17, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland
Flyweight
Manel Kape Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.3
Strike accuracy
48.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
19s
David Dvorak
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
35.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
54s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 7, 2025
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
Women's Flyweight
Wang Cong Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
47.7
Strike accuracy
64.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.3s
Ariane da Silva
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
35.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 10, 2022
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
Welterweight
Nate Diaz Winner
Finish 4th Rnd, 2m52s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.3
Strike accuracy
46.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Tony Ferguson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
46.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 13, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez
Lightweight
Drew Dober
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
40.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
10s
Jean Silva Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
48.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Diyar Nurgozhay Bruno Lopes
Career Record 11-2 14-3
Height 6' 2" 6' 2"
Weight 205 lbs. 205 lbs.
Reach 74" 74"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 29 33

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Diyar Nurgozhay Bruno Lopes
Per Round Average
Strikes 19.7 10.7
Strike accuracy 61.1% 45.1%
Takedowns 0.5 0.8
Takedown accuracy 75% 22.7%
Sub attempts 0 0
Control time 25.8s 103.2s
Knockdowns 0 0
Knockdowns absorbed 0.33 0.33
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 77.8% 66.7%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 9 6
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 33.1% 57.8%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 39.8% 26.6%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 27.1% 15.6%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 11.5 18.5
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.33 0
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.53 0.52
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.37 0.13
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0 3
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 57.1% 75.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 57.1% 25.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 50.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 100.0% 100.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 88.1% 51.6%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.1% 43.8%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.8% 4.7%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 8:04 8:38
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,484.9 1,487.5
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.067 0.030
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Diyar Nurgozhay 47.5% 1.62 61.7% -23.0%
Bruno Lopes 52.5% 2.36 42.4% +23.8%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 7% of bankroll on Bruno Lopes at 2.24 (DraftKings) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Diyar Nurgozhay Bruno Lopes
US Decimal US Decimal
DraftKings -161 1.62 +136 2.36
FanDuel -164 1.61 +138 2.38
BetMGM -169 1.59 +140 2.40
Bovada -164 1.61 +138 2.38
BetOnline -161 1.62 +140 2.40

Odds captured Aug 8, 2026, 6:02 PM

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