FightChoice Intelligence Report

Mateusz Gamrot
vs
Quillan Salkilld

Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld

https://fightchoice.app/events/mateusz-gamrot-vs-quillan-salkilld-prediction-2026-08-08

Lightweight

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Aug 8, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 7, 2026, 07:21 UTC

Model Breakdown
Mateusz Gamrot Quillan Salkilld
Statistical Model δ 29% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model β 37% weight 29.2% 70.8%
Statistical Model ε 34% weight 37.0% 63.0%
Ensemble 37.0% 63.0%
Predicted Winner
Quillan Salkilld
63.0%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)
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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Mateusz Gamrot Quillan Salkilld
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 23, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade
Women's Strawweight
Amanda Lemos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
41.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Jessica Andrade Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m13s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
38s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 27, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
Middleweight
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
26.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Abus Magomedov Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m25s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
37%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
36s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 8, 2025
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
Women's Strawweight
Amanda Lemos Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
60%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
159.3s
Iasmin Lucindo
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.3
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
81.3s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 24, 2020
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
Lightweight
Alexander Yakovlev
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
100%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
117s
Joel Alvarez Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 8, 2023
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
Middleweight
Kelvin Gastelum Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.7
Strike accuracy
44.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
Chris Curtis
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
34.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Mateusz Gamrot Quillan Salkilld
UFC Record 9-4 5-0
Height 5' 10" 6' 0"
Weight 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 70" 75"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 35 26

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Mateusz Gamrot Quillan Salkilld
Per Round Average
Strikes 14.7 16.6
Strike accuracy 51.6% 59.8%
Takedowns 1.6 1.4
Takedown accuracy 38.6% 31.3%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.1
Control time 88.5s 73.6s
Knockdowns 0.03 0.43
Knockdowns absorbed 0.15 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 69.2% 84.6%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 100.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 14
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 13 26
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 76.7% 63.8%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 13.7% 24.1%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 9.6% 12.1%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 12.79 7.86
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.06 0.43
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.73 0.71
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.8 0.68
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.59 0.17
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 55.6% 68.2%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 33.3% 27.3%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 22.2% 40.9%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 25.0% 25.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 75.3% 69.0%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.4% 16.4%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 18.3% 14.7%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 11:56 4:52
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,594.8 1,583.6
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.272 0.202
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Mateusz Gamrot 37.0% 2.24 44.6% -17.0%
Quillan Salkilld 63.0% 1.68 59.5% +5.8%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 13% of bankroll on Quillan Salkilld at 1.70 (DraftKings) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Mateusz Gamrot Quillan Salkilld
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +105 2.05 -164 1.61
DraftKings +124 2.24 -147 1.68
FanDuel +122 2.22 -145 1.69
BetMGM +115 2.15 -141 1.71
Bovada +122 2.22 -143 1.70
BetOnline +122 2.22 -143 1.70

Odds captured Aug 9, 2026, 12:02 AM

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