FightChoice Intelligence Report

Edson Barboza
vs
Esteban Ribovics

Edson Barboza vs Esteban Ribovics

https://fightchoice.app/events/edson-barboza-vs-esteban-ribovics-prediction-2026-08-15

Lightweight

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Aug 15, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 13, 2026, 06:07 UTC

Model Breakdown
Edson Barboza Esteban Ribovics
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 22.7% 77.3%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 45.6% 54.4%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 25.4% 74.6%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 29.5% 70.5%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 37.2% 62.8%
Ensemble 25.4% 74.6%
Predicted Winner
Esteban Ribovics
74.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

58% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Edson Barboza Esteban Ribovics
69% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 27, 2024
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
Lightweight
King Green
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
71.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34s
Paddy Pimblett Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
61.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
67% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 8, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson
Welterweight
Donald Cerrone
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
48.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Alex Morono Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m40s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
35
Strike accuracy
41.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 15, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
Bantamweight
Douglas Silva de Andrade
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
30.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.3s
Miles Johns Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
52.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 18, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett
Welterweight
Tim Means
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.5
Strike accuracy
45.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
45s
Kevin Holland Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.5s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 7, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Women's Bantamweight
Priscila Cachoeira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
33
Strike accuracy
45.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5.3s
Klaudia Sygula Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
50.3
Strike accuracy
45.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 25, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
16.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Sam Patterson Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m06s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32
Strike accuracy
48.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 2, 2022
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
Welterweight
Robbie Lawler
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40.5
Strike accuracy
57.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Bryan Barberena Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
73.5
Strike accuracy
46.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 3, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Welterweight
Stephen Thompson Winner
Finish 4th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
40.8
Strike accuracy
62.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.8s
Kevin Holland
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.8
Strike accuracy
56.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
20.3s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 13, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida
Welterweight
Tim Means
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
46%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
23s
Alex Morono Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m09s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.5
Strike accuracy
35.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 17, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Featherweight
Julian Erosa
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
39.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
30%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
71.3s
Melquizael Costa Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
7.7s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 16, 2017
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio
Flyweight
Alexandre Pantoja Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m31s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
39.7
Strike accuracy
52.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
88.7s
Neil Seery
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.3
Strike accuracy
44.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.3s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 20, 2022
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
Lightweight
Leonardo Santos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18s
Jared Gordon Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
38.7
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
78.3s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 18, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy
Women's Strawweight
Angela Hill Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m12s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
35.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
93s
Luana Pinheiro
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
28.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 5, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland
Women's Bantamweight
Alexis Davis Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.3
Strike accuracy
70.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
183s
Julija Stoliarenko
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.7
Strike accuracy
49.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 19, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal
Welterweight
Alex Morono
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10.3
Strike accuracy
39.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
50s
Anthony Pettis Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.7
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
90.7s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Edson Barboza Esteban Ribovics
UFC Record 18-14 4-3
Height 5' 11" 5' 10"
Weight 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 75" 69"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 40 30

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Edson Barboza Esteban Ribovics
Per Round Average
Strikes 18.7 34.2
Strike accuracy 44.7% 43.2%
Takedowns 0.1 0.1
Takedown accuracy 50% 66.7%
Sub attempts 0.0 0.1
Control time 17.4s 9.5s
Knockdowns 0.19 0.11
Knockdowns absorbed 0.11 0.06
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 56.3% 83.3%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -3 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 32 18
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 43.8% 74.8%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 31.5% 16.4%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 24.7% 8.8%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 21.08 27.39
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.33 1.06
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.5 2.22
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.41 1.34
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.33 5.000
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 80.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 50.0% 46.7%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 33.3%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 50.0% 33.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 91.2% 93.7%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.0% 2.3%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 3.8% 4.1%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 11:59 12:08
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,534.8 1,522.4
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.213 0.121
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Edson Barboza 25.4% 6.25 16.0% +58.8%
Esteban Ribovics 74.6% 1.13 88.5% -15.7%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Edson Barboza Esteban Ribovics
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +450 5.50 -1111 1.09
DraftKings +525 6.25 -769 1.13
FanDuel +530 6.30 -769 1.13
BetMGM +550 6.50 -833 1.12
Bovada +532 6.32 -714 1.14
BetOnline +505 6.05 -714 1.14

Odds captured Aug 16, 2026, 12:01 AM

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