FightChoice Intelligence Report

Jeremiah Wells
vs
Myktybek Orolbai

Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai

https://fightchoice.app/events/jeremiah-wells-vs-myktybek-orolbai-prediction-2026-08-15

Welterweight

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Aug 15, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 13, 2026, 06:07 UTC

Model Breakdown
Jeremiah Wells Myktybek Orolbai
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 44.9% 55.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 30.8% 69.2%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 29.6% 70.4%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 19.6% 80.4%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 22.2% 77.8%
Ensemble 20.4% 79.6%
Predicted Winner
Myktybek Orolbai
79.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 3m45s (13m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

48% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Jeremiah Wells Myktybek Orolbai
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 6, 2021
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
Bantamweight
Marlon Vera Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 3m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.3
Strike accuracy
53.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.3s
Frankie Edgar
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.3
Strike accuracy
60.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
88.3s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 3, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Featherweight
Jonathan Pearce Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
36.7
Strike accuracy
49.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
71s
Darren Elkins
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
29.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 13, 2021
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
Featherweight
Brian Kelleher
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.3
Strike accuracy
26%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
Ricky Simon Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
45.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
164.7s
68% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 13, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
Bantamweight
Marlon Vera Winner
Finish 4th Rnd, 2m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
39.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.5s
Dominick Cruz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
36.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.3s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 18, 2025
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen
Bantamweight
Charles Jourdain Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m05s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
58.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
20s
Davey Grant
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
34.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 15, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues
Middleweight
Jared Cannonier Winner
Finish 4th Rnd, 0m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24.5
Strike accuracy
48.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
32.3s
Gregory Rodrigues
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
42.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.3s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 24, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw
Bantamweight
Cory Sandhagen
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.6
Strike accuracy
45.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.2
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
TJ Dillashaw Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
41%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.4
Takedown accuracy
10.5%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
100.4s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 15, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2
Bantamweight
Da'Mon Blackshear Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m09s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.5
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.5
Control time (Per Rnd)
106s
Cody Gibson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.5
Strike accuracy
63.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
81s
66% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 20, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland
Lightweight
Grant Dawson Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
54.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
7.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
166s
Leonardo Santos
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
44.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 28, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier
Middleweight
Jared Cannonier Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
52.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
Jack Hermansson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22.5s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 5, 2022
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
Featherweight
Brian Kelleher
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
5.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6s
Umar Nurmagomedov Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m15s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
69.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
20%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
87s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 3, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Bantamweight
Marlon Vera
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.3
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2.7s
Deiveson Figueiredo Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
14.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
50s
65% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 6, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov
Bantamweight
Cory Sandhagen Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Frankie Edgar
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 21, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Middleweight
Christian Leroy Duncan Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
54.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22.7s
Roman Dolidze
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.3
Strike accuracy
29.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
142.3s
64% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 5, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font
catch/open/unknown
Cory Sandhagen Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.8
Strike accuracy
40.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.4
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.2
Control time (Per Rnd)
235.6s
Rob Font
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.8
Strike accuracy
18.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.6s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Jeremiah Wells Myktybek Orolbai
Career Record 13-4-1 16-2-1
Height 5' 9" 5' 10"
Weight 170 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 74" 74"
Stance Switch Orthodox
Age 39 28

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Jeremiah Wells Myktybek Orolbai
Per Round Average
Strikes 10.1 13.2
Strike accuracy 46% 50%
Takedowns 0.9 2.8
Takedown accuracy 46.7% 59%
Sub attempts 0.4 0.2
Control time 136.4s 152.2s
Knockdowns 0.13 0.15
Knockdowns absorbed 0.13 0.08
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 77.3% 88.9%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 3
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 22 18
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 82.6% 74.9%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 14.9% 12.9%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 2.5% 12.3%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 5.5 12.77
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.44 0.46
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.5 0.41
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.58 0.57
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.57 0.41
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. Yes No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 70.6% 75.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 41.2% 43.8%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 29.4% 31.3%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 40.0% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 52.8% 66.7%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 3.1% 3.5%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 44.1% 29.8%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 9:47 10:16
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,545.6 1,566.6
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.101 0.153
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Jeremiah Wells 20.4% 7.75 12.9% +58.3%
Myktybek Orolbai 79.6% 1.10 90.9% -12.5%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Jeremiah Wells Myktybek Orolbai
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +600 7.00 -2000 1.05
DraftKings +675 7.75 -1000 1.10
FanDuel +750 8.50 -1250 1.08
BetMGM +725 8.25 -1250 1.08
Bovada +800 9.00 -1250 1.08
BetOnline +709 8.09 -1111 1.09

Odds captured Aug 15, 2026, 6:02 PM

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