FightChoice Intelligence Report

Vicente Luque
vs
Tresean Gore

Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore

https://fightchoice.app/events/vicente-luque-vs-tresean-gore-prediction-2026-08-15

Middleweight

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Aug 15, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 13, 2026, 06:07 UTC

Outdated predictions due to model or data updates

Model Breakdown
Vicente Luque Tresean Gore
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 55.8% 44.2%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 59.9% 40.1%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 54.8% 45.2%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 45.7% 54.3%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 62.1% 37.9%
Ensemble 58.3% 41.7%
Predicted Winner
Vicente Luque
58.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (15m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

52% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Vicente Luque Tresean Gore
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 5, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Font
catch/open/unknown
Rob Font
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1.8
Strike accuracy
18.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.2
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13.6s
Cory Sandhagen Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6.8
Strike accuracy
40.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.4
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.2
Control time (Per Rnd)
235.6s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 6, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson
Heavyweight
Ben Rothwell Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m54s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
31.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Matt Mitrione
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
38.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 23, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade
Featherweight
Lando Vannata
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
57s
Charles Jourdain Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m32s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
57.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
19s
77% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 6, 2020
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
Bantamweight
Aljamain Sterling Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
73s
Cory Sandhagen
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 16, 2024
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
Welterweight
Ramiz Brahimaj Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m55s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
55.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Mickey Gall
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
68.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 7, 2018
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
Lightweight
Gilbert Burns
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
46.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Dan Hooker Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
64.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
15s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 20, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards
Lightweight
James Vick
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
30.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Dan Hooker Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m33s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22
Strike accuracy
53.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 24, 2024
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2
Featherweight
Yair Rodriguez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18.3
Strike accuracy
47.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30.7s
Brian Ortega Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m58s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
38.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
107s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 13, 2014
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
Heavyweight
Gabriel Gonzaga
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Matt Mitrione Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m59s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 10, 2018
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
Flyweight
Jussier Formiga Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m43s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
55.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
80.7s
Ben Nguyen
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
32.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18.3s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 4, 2023
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
Bantamweight
Farid Basharat Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.3
Strike accuracy
60.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
109.3s
Da'Mon Blackshear
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
39.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
52.7s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 28, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier
Middleweight
Jack Hermansson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
47.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
22.5s
Jared Cannonier Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 0m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
52.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 17, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs Cruz
Heavyweight
Travis Browne Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 4m09s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
44.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
55.7s
Matt Mitrione
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
44.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 19, 2023
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
Bantamweight
Pedro Munhoz
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
37.7
Strike accuracy
45.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Marlon Vera Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
47
Strike accuracy
56.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 1, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson
Middleweight
Nate Marquardt Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m44s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
61.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
150s
Tamdan McCrory
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
30.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Vicente Luque Tresean Gore
UFC Record 17-8 3-4
Height 5' 11" 6' 0"
Weight 170 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 75" 75"
Stance Orthodox Switch
Age 34 32

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Vicente Luque Tresean Gore
Per Round Average
Strikes 21.0 14.3
Strike accuracy 50.9% 49.8%
Takedowns 0.3 0.5
Takedown accuracy 48.3% 72.7%
Sub attempts 0.2 0.3
Control time 38s 36.3s
Knockdowns 0.20 0
Knockdowns absorbed 0.07 0.27
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 68.0% 72.2%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 25 18
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 60.5% 57.5%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 13.5% 15.4%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 26.0% 27.1%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 22.98 29.27
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.46 0.33
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.4 0.56
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.57 0.36
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.29 0.67
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes No
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No Yes
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 88.2% 76.9%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 47.1% 23.1%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 41.2% 53.8%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 37.5% 40.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 88.4% 84.1%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 5.5% 10.7%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 6.2% 5.1%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 9:28 8:58
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,604.4 1,490.5
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.198 0.077
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Decline

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Vicente Luque 58.3% 1.98 50.5% +15.4%
Tresean Gore 41.7% 1.85 54.1% -22.9%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 12% of bankroll on Vicente Luque at 2.24 (DraftKings) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Vicente Luque Tresean Gore
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -125 1.80 -125 1.80
DraftKings -102 1.98 -118 1.85
FanDuel -102 1.98 -116 1.86
BetMGM -110 1.91 -110 1.91
Bovada -108 1.93 -112 1.89
BetOnline -105 1.95 -115 1.87

Odds captured Aug 15, 2026, 6:02 PM

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