FightChoice Intelligence Report
Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry
https://fightchoice.app/events/islam-makhachev-vs-ian-machado-garry-prediction-2026-08-15
Welterweight
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Aug 15, 2026
Stats Model Prediction
🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 13, 2026, 06:07 UTC
Outdated predictions due to model or data updates
- Aug 7, 2026, 07:21 UTC · Ian Machado Garry
Model Breakdown
Islam Makhachev
Ian Machado Garry
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight
52.6%
47.4%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight
51.0%
49.0%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight
60.4%
39.6%
Statistical Model β 21% weight
50.0%
50.0%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight
47.2%
52.8%
Ensemble
52.9%
47.1%
Predicted Winner
Islam Makhachev
52.9%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)
Chance the Fight Is Still Going
78%
59%
44%
38%
35%
Rnd 1
Rnd 2
Rnd 3
Rnd 4
Rnd 5
35%
Chance of Decision
The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.
Fights with a similar mismatch
Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.
| Fight | Islam Makhachev | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
|
77%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green
|
Islam Makhachev
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
74%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
|
Michael Chiesa
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley
|
Michael Chiesa
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
|
Michael Chiesa
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
|
Pat Sabatini
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
|
Vitor Belfort
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili
|
Fight Performance
|
Alexander Volkov
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
|
Fight Performance
|
Sam Stout
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
71%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
|
Fight Performance
|
King Green
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
|
Fight Performance
|
Vicente Luque
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
|
Fight Performance
|
Kevin Holland
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
|
Fight Performance
|
Leonardo Santos
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises
|
Islam Makhachev
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
|
Fight Performance
|
Casey O'Neill
Winner
Fight Performance
|
|
70%
How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record.
Match
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
|
Natalia Silva
Winner
Fight Performance
|
Fight Performance
|
Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Islam Makhachev | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| UFC Record | 17-1 | 10-1 |
| Height | 5' 10" | 6' 3" |
| Weight | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach | 70" | 74" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Age | 34 | 28 |
Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.
Head-to-Head Statistics
The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.
| Stat | Islam Makhachev | Ian Machado Garry |
|---|---|---|
| Per Round Average | ||
| Strikes | 10.8 | 23.5 |
| Strike accuracy | 58.4% | 54.1% |
| Takedowns | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Takedown accuracy | 56.2% | 31.3% |
| Sub attempts | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Control time | 135.3s | 34.2s |
| Knockdowns | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| Knockdowns absorbed | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Advanced Fighter Statistics | ||
| win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. | 94.4% | 92.0% |
| recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. | 100.0% | 80.0% |
| win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. | 16 | 2 |
| total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. | 18 | 25 |
| head strike share | 70.9% | 56.4% |
| body strike share | 23.5% | 19.1% |
| leg strike share | 5.6% | 24.5% |
| sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 6.38 | 14.06 |
| takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.29 | 1.14 |
| cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.3 | 0.77 |
| cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. | 0.47 | 1.5 |
| is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. | No | Yes |
| is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. | Yes | No |
| switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. | No | No |
| finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 64.7% | 60.9% |
| KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 17.6% | 52.2% |
| sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. | 47.1% | 8.7% |
| been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| distance strike share | 57.3% | 90.8% |
| clinch strike share | 18.4% | 4.9% |
| ground strike share | 24.3% | 4.3% |
| avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. | 11:01 | 14:45 |
| Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. | 1,740.4 | 1,638.2 |
| PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. | 0.537 | 0.372 |
| career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. | Peak | Peak |
Betting Edge
| Fighter | Win confidence | DraftKings odds | Break-even | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 52.9% | 1.29 | 77.5% | -31.8% |
| Ian Machado Garry | 47.1% | 3.70 | 27.0% | +74.3% |
Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.
Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.
Recommended stake
No bet recommended at the price we recorded.
Market Odds
| Sportsbook | Islam Makhachev | Ian Machado Garry | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Decimal | US | Decimal | |
| Proline | -435 | 1.23 | +240 | 3.40 |
| DraftKings | -345 | 1.29 | +270 | 3.70 |
| FanDuel | -333 | 1.30 | +270 | 3.70 |
| BetMGM | -345 | 1.29 | +275 | 3.75 |
| Bovada | -345 | 1.29 | +275 | 3.75 |
| BetOnline | -345 | 1.29 | +280 | 3.80 |
Odds captured Aug 16, 2026, 12:01 AM
Line Movement
Decimal odds over time, by sportsbook
Islam Makhachev
Ian Machado Garry
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