FightChoice Intelligence Report

Neil Magny
vs
Ramiz Brahimaj

Neil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj

https://fightchoice.app/events/neil-magny-vs-ramiz-brahimaj-prediction-2026-08-15

Welterweight

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Aug 15, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 13, 2026, 06:07 UTC

Outdated predictions due to model or data updates

Model Breakdown
Neil Magny Ramiz Brahimaj
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 46.1% 53.9%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 48.5% 51.5%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 46.0% 54.0%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 45.7% 54.3%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 54.6% 45.4%
Ensemble 47.3% 52.7%
Predicted Winner
Ramiz Brahimaj
52.7%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
3rd Round at 1m15s (11m15s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

42% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Neil Magny Ramiz Brahimaj
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 6, 2019
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
Welterweight
Diego Sanchez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2.3
Strike accuracy
63.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
48s
Michael Chiesa Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
70.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.7
Takedown accuracy
83.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
235s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 26, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Welterweight
Nicolas Dalby
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
35.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
41s
Randy Brown Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m39s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
47.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.5s
76% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 7, 2017
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
Middleweight
Brad Tavares Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
51.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27.7s
Thales Leites
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.3
Strike accuracy
34.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
59s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 27, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith
Light Heavyweight
Patrick Cummins
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
86s
Misha Cirkunov Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m40s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
61.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
40s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 19, 2023
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
Middleweight
Chris Weidman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
40.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
Brad Tavares Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
60.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 25, 2014
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
Heavyweight
Stipe Miocic Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21
Strike accuracy
33.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
42s
Gabriel Gonzaga
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
35.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.7s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 13, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
Lightweight
Jared Gordon
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
34.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Rafa Garcia Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 2m27s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.3
Strike accuracy
56.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
66.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
40.3s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 7, 2018
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
Lightweight
Evan Dunham
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
28.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Olivier Aubin-Mercier Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m53s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
72.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 20, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
Heavyweight
Ilir Latifi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.3
Strike accuracy
63.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
28.6%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
76.7s
Rodrigo Nascimento Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.7
Strike accuracy
44.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 15, 2017
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
Welterweight
Nathan Coy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
56.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
5s
Zak Cummings Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m21s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25
Strike accuracy
34.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
2
Control time (Per Rnd)
11s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 1, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
Heavyweight
Ilir Latifi Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.7
Strike accuracy
79.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
169.7s
Aleksei Oleinik
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.3
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0.7s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 5, 2024
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Middleweight
Roman Dolidze Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
57.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
170s
Kevin Holland
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
64.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 9, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos
Welterweight
Tim Means
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31
Strike accuracy
64.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
110s
Niko Price Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m50s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32
Strike accuracy
47.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 15, 2025
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
Lightweight
Beneil Dariush
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Benoit Saint Denis Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m16s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 19, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
Welterweight
Chad Laprise
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
44.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
51s
Vicente Luque Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m16s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Neil Magny Ramiz Brahimaj
UFC Record 24-13 5-4
Height 6' 3" 5' 10"
Weight 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach 80" 72"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 39 33

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Neil Magny Ramiz Brahimaj
Per Round Average
Strikes 15.9 9.6
Strike accuracy 46.9% 48.7%
Takedowns 0.7 0.6
Takedown accuracy 39.8% 34.5%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.4
Control time 59.8s 47.9s
Knockdowns 0.02 0.06
Knockdowns absorbed 0.12 0.06
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 64.9% 71.4%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 60.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -1
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 37 21
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 70.8% 71.5%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 18.7% 22.7%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 10.4% 5.8%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 11.37 13.67
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.53 0.89
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.05 0.22
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.43 0.63
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1 0.2
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 41.7% 93.3%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 29.2% 13.3%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 12.5% 80.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 76.9% 16.7%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 58.6% 79.7%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 17.9% 16.3%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 23.4% 4.1%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 11:58 8:21
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,604.9 1,515.8
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.359 0.080
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Neil Magny 47.3% 2.20 45.5% +4.2%
Ramiz Brahimaj 52.7% 1.70 58.8% -10.5%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 1% of bankroll on Ramiz Brahimaj at 1.95 (DraftKings) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Neil Magny Ramiz Brahimaj
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline +106 2.06 -167 1.60
DraftKings +120 2.20 -143 1.70
FanDuel +130 2.30 -154 1.65
BetMGM +125 2.25 -149 1.67
Bovada +127 2.27 -147 1.68
BetOnline +129 2.29 -149 1.67

Odds captured Aug 15, 2026, 6:02 PM

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