FightChoice Intelligence Report

Mansur Abdul-Malik
vs
Dustin Stoltzfus

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus

https://fightchoice.app/events/mansur-abdul-malik-vs-dustin-stoltzfus-prediction-2026-08-15

Middleweight

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Aug 15, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 13, 2026, 06:07 UTC

Model Breakdown
Mansur Abdul-Malik Dustin Stoltzfus
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 54.9% 45.1%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 52.9% 47.1%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 61.2% 38.8%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 70.5% 29.5%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 62.9% 37.1%
Ensemble 65.7% 34.3%
Predicted Winner
Mansur Abdul-Malik
65.7%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
1st Round at 3m45s (3m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

23% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Mansur Abdul-Malik Dustin Stoltzfus
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 21, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.
Middleweight
Ismail Naurdiev
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.3
Strike accuracy
49.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.3s
JunYong Park Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
41.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
133s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 25, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Women's Bantamweight
Joselyne Edwards Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23.3
Strike accuracy
46.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
47s
Norma Dumont
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
51%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
43s
72% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 5, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy
Featherweight
Pat Sabatini Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
77.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
80%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
275.7s
Joanderson Brito
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
1
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 9, 2017
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
Featherweight
Gilbert Melendez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.7
Strike accuracy
22.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Jeremy Stephens Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32
Strike accuracy
38.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
27s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 10, 2016
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m48s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
68%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
Gabriel Gonzaga
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
71.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
219s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 18, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
Light Heavyweight
Ryan Spann
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30s
Anthony Smith Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
60.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
98s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 13, 2016
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Middleweight
Josh Samman
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.5
Strike accuracy
43.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
63.5s
Tim Boetsch Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m49s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
65.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
131s
71% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 2, 2013
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
Lightweight
Takanori Gomi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
45%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1s
Diego Sanchez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
44.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
40%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.7s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 4, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy
Lightweight
Al Iaquinta
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
40.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Donald Cerrone Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.6
Strike accuracy
38.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4.4s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 9, 2020
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Featherweight
Calvin Kattar Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 2m49s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26
Strike accuracy
46%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Jeremy Stephens
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28.5
Strike accuracy
54.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 10, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie vs. Rodriguez
Welterweight
Mike Perry
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
55%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
58s
Donald Cerrone Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m46s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9
Strike accuracy
69.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
40s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 13, 2024
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
Light Heavyweight
Jiri Prochazka Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m17s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
34.5
Strike accuracy
58.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19s
Aleksandar Rakic
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29
Strike accuracy
53.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 7, 2009
UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine
Heavyweight
Shane Carwin Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m09s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Gabriel Gonzaga
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
62.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
29s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 5, 2022
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
Heavyweight
Serghei Spivac Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m16s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
51.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
81s
Greg Hardy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
58.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
70% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 25, 2014
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
Bantamweight
Eddie Wineland Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m16s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27
Strike accuracy
39.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
37.5s
Yves Jabouin
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.5
Strike accuracy
30.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Mansur Abdul-Malik Dustin Stoltzfus
Career Record 9-1 16-8
Height 6' 2" 6' 0"
Weight 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach 80" 75"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 28 34

Records are official career records, all promotions included.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Mansur Abdul-Malik Dustin Stoltzfus
Per Round Average
Strikes 10.1 14.8
Strike accuracy 41.7% 44.3%
Takedowns 0.5 0.6
Takedown accuracy 41.7% 35.9%
Sub attempts 0.1 0.3
Control time 29.8s 74.9s
Knockdowns 0.10 0.09
Knockdowns absorbed 0.20 0.13
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 80.0% 62.5%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 80.0% 40.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. -1 -2
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 5 24
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 88.2% 51.5%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 7.9% 25.0%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 3.9% 23.5%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 18.29 14.65
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.14 0.3
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.05 0.38
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.64 0.59
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1 1
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 53.3%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 75.0% 13.3%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 25.0% 40.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 100.0% 44.4%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 34.2% 80.3%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 21.1% 10.9%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 44.7% 8.8%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 6:29 10:22
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,526.5 1,453.2
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.037 0.101
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Decline

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Mansur Abdul-Malik 65.7% 1.13 88.5% -25.8%
Dustin Stoltzfus 34.3% 6.25 16.0% +114.4%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake No bet recommended at the price we recorded.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Mansur Abdul-Malik Dustin Stoltzfus
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -1111 1.09 +440 5.40
DraftKings -769 1.13 +525 6.25
FanDuel -769 1.13 +540 6.40
Bovada -769 1.13 +542 6.42
BetOnline -667 1.15 +476 5.76

Odds captured Aug 16, 2026, 12:01 AM

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