FightChoice Intelligence Report

Jalin Turner
vs
Kaue Fernandes

Jalin Turner vs Kaue Fernandes

https://fightchoice.app/events/jalin-turner-vs-kaue-fernandes-prediction-2026-08-15

Lightweight

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Aug 15, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 13, 2026, 06:07 UTC

Outdated predictions due to model or data updates

Model Breakdown
Jalin Turner Kaue Fernandes
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 49.0% 51.0%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 63.3% 36.7%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 47.7% 52.3%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 50.0% 50.0%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 51.8% 48.2%
Ensemble 54.3% 45.7%
Predicted Winner
Jalin Turner
54.3%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
2nd Round at 3m45s (8m45s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

33% Chance of Decision

The dashed line is 50%. The round where the curve crosses it is the round named above — the midpoint of the distribution, not necessarily its single most likely outcome.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Jalin Turner Kaue Fernandes
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 14, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic
Light Heavyweight
Ion Cutelaba
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
22.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
3
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
71s
Ryan Spann Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 2m22s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
36.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 4, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
Lightweight
Michael Chiesa Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19.7
Strike accuracy
46.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.3
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
107.7s
Mitch Clarke
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
21.7
Strike accuracy
54.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
51.7s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 21, 2015
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum
Featherweight
Diego Sanchez
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
10
Strike accuracy
34.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
28.3s
Ricardo Lamas Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
52.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
92.7s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 11, 2015
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
Featherweight
Conor McGregor Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 4m57s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
23
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Chad Mendes
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.5
Strike accuracy
64.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
2
Takedown accuracy
57.1%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
159.5s
75% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Apr 13, 2024
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
Middleweight
Bo Nickal Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
4
Strike accuracy
61.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
222.5s
Cody Brundage
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
33.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
1.5s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 14, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Light Heavyweight
Ion Cutelaba Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m24s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
70%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
147s
Oumar Sy
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
45.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
18s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 9, 2023
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez
Light Heavyweight
Khalil Rountree Jr. Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 0m56s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17.7
Strike accuracy
46.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
19.3s
Anthony Smith
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
56%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3.7s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 28, 2011
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
Lightweight
Gleison Tibau Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 3m28s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
9.5
Strike accuracy
33.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1.5
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
70.5s
Rafaello Oliveira
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
6
Strike accuracy
25%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
7s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 17, 2012
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
Welterweight
Martin Kampmann
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
0
Strike accuracy
0%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Johny Hendricks Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m46s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
74% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 3, 2015
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
Lightweight
Evan Dunham Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
50.7
Strike accuracy
44.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
50%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
11.3s
Rodrigo Damm
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15.7
Strike accuracy
30.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 23, 2010
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
Welterweight
Diego Sanchez Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
42.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
25%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
184.7s
Paulo Thiago
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
55.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
30.7s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 1, 2024
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Middleweight
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
44.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
31s
Kevin Holland Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m34s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
47.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
16s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 14, 2019
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
Welterweight
Geoff Neal Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 1m30s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
15
Strike accuracy
65.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
2s
Mike Perry
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Aug 25, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick
Lightweight
Drew Dober Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
20
Strike accuracy
44.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
156s
Jon Tuck
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
44%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
73% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 21, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Featherweight
Melquizael Costa Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 4m56s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
19
Strike accuracy
47.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
32s
Dan Ige
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
7
Strike accuracy
63.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
91s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Jalin Turner Kaue Fernandes
UFC Record 8-6 3-1
Height 6' 3" 5' 9"
Weight 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach 77" 73"
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Age 31 31

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Jalin Turner Kaue Fernandes
Per Round Average
Strikes 21.3 20.4
Strike accuracy 48.3% 55.4%
Takedowns 0.2 0.4
Takedown accuracy 50% 100%
Sub attempts 0.3 0
Control time 33.8s 26.5s
Knockdowns 0.38 0.50
Knockdowns absorbed 0.08 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 57.1% 80.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 40.0% 80.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 1 3
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 14 5
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 67.3% 47.9%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 26.4% 20.2%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 6.3% 31.9%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 17.12 6.75
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.5 0.38
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.18 0.32
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.27 0.78
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.5 1
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. No Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. Yes No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 100.0% 75.0%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 62.5% 75.0%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 37.5% 0.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 50.0% 0.0%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 73.0% 83.4%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 10.2% 4.3%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 16.8% 12.3%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 6:45 9:32
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,538.2 1,531.1
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.120 0.038
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Decline Peak

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Jalin Turner 54.3% 1.85 54.1% +0.5%
Kaue Fernandes 45.7% 1.98 50.5% -9.5%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 1% of bankroll on Jalin Turner at 1.68 (DraftKings) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Jalin Turner Kaue Fernandes
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -125 1.80 -125 1.80
DraftKings -118 1.85 -102 1.98
FanDuel -116 1.86 -104 1.96
Bovada -114 1.88 -103 1.97
BetOnline -125 1.80 +105 2.05

Odds captured Aug 16, 2026, 12:01 AM

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