FightChoice Intelligence Report

Mackenzie Dern
vs
Gillian Robertson

Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson

https://fightchoice.app/events/mackenzie-dern-vs-gillian-robertson-prediction-2026-08-15

Women's Strawweight

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Aug 15, 2026

Stats Model Prediction

🔒 Prediction locked in before the fight · Predicted Aug 13, 2026, 06:07 UTC

Model Breakdown
Mackenzie Dern Gillian Robertson
Deep Learning Model α 21% weight 51.4% 48.6%
Deep Learning Model ξ 23% weight 54.5% 45.5%
Statistical Model δ 16% weight 42.9% 57.1%
Statistical Model β 21% weight 29.5% 70.5%
Statistical Model ε 19% weight 37.3% 62.7%
Ensemble 39.4% 60.6%
Predicted Winner
Gillian Robertson
60.6%
Confidence
* Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.
Predicted Duration
Decision (25m00s total)

Chance the Fight Is Still Going

59% Chance of Decision

The curve stays above 50% all the way to the final bell, which is why the call above is a decision.

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Fights with a similar mismatch

Every fighter is reduced to a profile of 37 career measures as they stood going into the fight, standardised so that no single measure dominates merely for having bigger units — a far wider read than the six charted below. The bout is then described by the gap between the two: how far apart they were on each of those measures, setting aside which one was ahead. The fights listed here are those whose gaps line up most closely with this one. Because the match is on the shape of a mismatch rather than on a weight class or an era, a neighbour can come from an entirely different division.

Fight Mackenzie Dern Gillian Robertson
80% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Dec 1, 2018
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa
Welterweight
Anthony Rocco Martin Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m19s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8.3
Strike accuracy
29.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
23.7s
Jake Matthews
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
32%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 10, 2020
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen
Heavyweight
Ben Rothwell
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
29.7
Strike accuracy
32.2%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.3s
Marcin Tybura Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
31.3
Strike accuracy
51.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
62.7s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 17, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Featherweight
Andre Fili Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
32.7
Strike accuracy
43.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Myles Jury
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
25.3
Strike accuracy
53.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
16.7s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 5, 2014
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi
Middleweight
Chris Camozzi
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
22.3
Strike accuracy
59.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
54.7s
Rafael Natal Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12
Strike accuracy
49.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
16.7%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
54.7s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Sep 18, 2021
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
Light Heavyweight
Anthony Smith Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m47s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
17
Strike accuracy
60.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
98s
Ryan Spann
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
8
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
30s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 2, 2013
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
Lightweight
Evan Dunham Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.3
Strike accuracy
38.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
31s
Gleison Tibau
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
21.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
22.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
36.3s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
May 6, 2023
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
Welterweight
Belal Muhammad Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
26.4
Strike accuracy
46.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Gilbert Burns
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16.2
Strike accuracy
55.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
79% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Oct 5, 2024
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
Welterweight
Court McGee Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 3m19s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
58.3%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
100%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
1
Control time (Per Rnd)
118s
Tim Means
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
38.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jun 1, 2019
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith
Light Heavyweight
Anthony Smith Winner
Finish 4th Rnd, 2m38s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
12.3
Strike accuracy
47.1%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.3
Control time (Per Rnd)
21s
Alexander Gustafsson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
18
Strike accuracy
47.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.3
Takedown accuracy
33.3%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
9.5s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Feb 5, 2022
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland
Middleweight
Sean Strickland Winner
Decision 5th Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
30.6
Strike accuracy
46.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Jack Hermansson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
27.4
Strike accuracy
38.8%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
0%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
6.2s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jan 11, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Welterweight
Uros Medic
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
2
Strike accuracy
66.7%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Punahele Soriano Winner
Finish 1st Rnd, 0m31s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13
Strike accuracy
76.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Jul 10, 2021
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Middleweight
Brad Tavares Winner
Decision 3rd Rnd, 5m00s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
28
Strike accuracy
56%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
3s
Omari Akhmedov
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
16
Strike accuracy
28.9%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0.7
Takedown accuracy
22.2%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
34s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 7, 2026
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Lightweight
Michael Johnson
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
13.5
Strike accuracy
35.5%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Drew Dober Winner
Finish 2nd Rnd, 1m53s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
11
Strike accuracy
40%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Mar 6, 2021
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
Lightweight
Drew Dober
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
3.3
Strike accuracy
50%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
4s
Islam Makhachev Winner
Finish 3rd Rnd, 1m37s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
5
Strike accuracy
60%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
1
Takedown accuracy
75%
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0.7
Control time (Per Rnd)
188.7s
78% How closely the gap between these two fighters resembles the gap in that historical bout — the size and shape of the mismatch, not the fighters themselves. Two completely different pairs can produce the same mismatch. 100% would be an identical gap; two fights picked at random score about 36%, so a number near that means there is no real comparable on record. Match
Nov 17, 2012
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
Middleweight
Patrick Cote Winner
Decision 1st Rnd, 1m26s
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
14
Strike accuracy
42.4%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
0s
Alessio Sakara
Fight Performance
Strikes (Per Rnd)
24
Strike accuracy
70.6%
Takedowns (Per Rnd)
0
Takedown accuracy
—
Sub attempts (Per Rnd)
0
Control time (Per Rnd)
13s

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Tale of the Tape

Stat Mackenzie Dern Gillian Robertson
UFC Record 11-5 14-6
Height 5' 4" 5' 5"
Weight 115 lbs. 115 lbs.
Reach 63" 63"
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Age 33 31

Records count UFC bouts only (wins-losses-no contests) — we have no verified pre-UFC record for both of these fighters.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The same per-round and advanced numbers each fighter's profile shows, side by side. The stronger value in each row is highlighted.

Stat Mackenzie Dern Gillian Robertson
Per Round Average
Strikes 16.7 12.4
Strike accuracy 41.6% 48.5%
Takedowns 0.3 0.8
Takedown accuracy 18.4% 40.9%
Sub attempts 0.3 0.3
Control time 81.3s 136.8s
Knockdowns 0.04 0
Knockdowns absorbed 0.13 0
Advanced Fighter Statistics
win rate Wins divided by this fighter's total recorded fights. 68.8% 70.0%
recent win rate Win rate over the last 5 recorded fights only — a form signal, not a career figure. 60.0% 100.0%
win streak Current run: a positive number is consecutive wins, a negative number consecutive losses. 3 5
total fights Total recorded fights, including bouts outside the UFC. 16 20
head strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the head. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 75.4% 67.3%
body strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the body. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 14.0% 16.1%
leg strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes that went to the legs. Head, body and leg sum to 100%. 10.6% 16.6%
sig strikes absorbed Significant strikes opponents land on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 18.98 13.11
takedowns absorbed Takedowns opponents complete on this fighter PER ROUND, counted from the round-by-round UFC stats across their scored rounds. Lower is better. 0.38 0.24
cardio sig ratio This fighter's significant strikes landed in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral: above it their output grows late, below it they fade. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.57 0.55
cardio defence ratio What OPPONENTS land on this fighter in the LATER rounds divided by what they land in the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. LOWER is better — a high value means opponents find them more as the fight wears on. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 0.67 0.43
cardio takedown ratio This fighter's takedowns in the LATER rounds divided by the EARLIER rounds. 1.0 is neutral. Shown only for fighters with at least 3 UFC bouts on record. 1.25 0.28
is orthodox Whether the fighter's recorded stance is orthodox. Yes Yes
is southpaw Whether the fighter's recorded stance is southpaw. No No
switch stance Whether the fighter is recorded as switching stance. No No
finish rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by finish, KO/TKO or submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 45.5% 71.4%
KO win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by KO or TKO. The denominator is wins, not fights. 0.0% 21.4%
sub win rate Share of this fighter's WINS that came by submission. The denominator is wins, not fights. 45.5% 50.0%
been stopped rate Share of this fighter's LOSSES that ended by finish — the denominator is LOSSES, not fights. A fighter who is 20-1 whose single loss was a KO therefore reads 100%. 20.0% 33.3%
distance strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown at distance. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 72.9% 50.2%
clinch strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown in the clinch. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 10.1% 3.6%
ground strike share Share of this fighter's landed significant strikes thrown on the ground. Distance, clinch and ground sum to 100%. 17.0% 46.2%
avg fight duration (m:ss) Mean length of this fighter's UFC fights, in minutes and seconds. "—" means we hold no round-time data for them. 14:10 10:20
Elo rating A UFC-only Elo rating: it rises and falls with results, weighted by the opponent's rating. 1500 is the starting and dataset-average value. 1,584.6 1,602.1
PageRank How central this fighter is in the network of who-fought-whom. It reflects the quality of opposition they have shared a cage with, not their skill. 0.140 0.191
career stage Form over the last 4 fights before this one: 3 or more wins reads Peak, 2 or fewer reads Decline, and fewer than 4 prior fights reads Early. Peak Peak

Betting Edge

Fighter Win confidence DraftKings odds Break-even Edge
Mackenzie Dern 39.4% 1.51 66.2% -40.6%
Gillian Robertson 60.6% 2.64 37.9% +60.1%

Odds are the latest we have from DraftKings. Edge = win confidence × decimal odds − 1, so a positive edge means the price pays more than our model thinks the fighter is worth.

Break-even = 1 ÷ decimal odds — the win rate you would need at that price just to come out level. It is the raw price, with the bookmaker's margin still in it, so the two fighters' break-evens add up to more than 100%: that surplus is the book's cut, not a mistake.

Recommended stake 20% of bankroll on Gillian Robertson at 2.95 (DraftKings) * Model output, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

Market Odds

Sportsbook Mackenzie Dern Gillian Robertson
US Decimal US Decimal
Proline -244 1.41 +150 2.50
DraftKings -196 1.51 +164 2.64
FanDuel -200 1.50 +168 2.68
BetMGM -200 1.50 +165 2.65
Bovada -200 1.50 +170 2.70
BetOnline -196 1.51 +170 2.70

Odds captured Aug 16, 2026, 12:01 AM

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